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Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Thu May 25, 2023 10:09 pm
by Math
And Pavelski is now all-time 5th in postseason GWG, just one behind Claude Lemieux (yeah not Mario. Claude *fargin'* Lemieux).

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Thu May 25, 2023 10:10 pm
by The Frugal Gourmet
Math wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 10:09 pm And Pavelski is now all-time 5th in postseason GWG, just one behind Claude Lemieux (yeah not Mario. Claude *fargin'* Lemieux).
You have to admire his ability to get deep in the playoffs and lose in devastating fashion.

Saad was just saying Pavelski was on the last team that was up 3-0 in a series and lost.

Haha.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Thu May 25, 2023 10:13 pm
by Knives Out
The Frugal Gourmet wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 10:10 pm Pavelski was on the last team that was up 3-0 in a series and lost.
the Hockey Gods are cooking something up ...

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Thu May 25, 2023 10:16 pm
by The Frugal Gourmet
Knives Out wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 10:13 pm
The Frugal Gourmet wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 10:10 pm Pavelski was on the last team that was up 3-0 in a series and lost.
the Hockey Gods are cooking something up ...
If only.

If Vegas falls on its face though, I'm kinda curious to see how Benn would return.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Thu May 25, 2023 10:19 pm
by 5minmajor
Math wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 10:09 pm And Pavelski is now all-time 5th in postseason GWG, just one behind Claude Lemieux (yeah not Mario. Claude *fargin'* Lemieux).
You mean former Star Claude Lemieux?

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Thu May 25, 2023 11:54 pm
by ToddM

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 1:38 am
by ToddM

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 7:10 am
by Math
5minmajor wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 10:19 pm
Math wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 10:09 pm And Pavelski is now all-time 5th in postseason GWG, just one behind Claude Lemieux (yeah not Mario. Claude *fargin'* Lemieux).
You mean former Star Claude Lemieux?
Tragically, yes ;-/

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 11:47 am
by B Kat
Finally an OT win for Dallas. They live to see another day, which is fine because I’m home all weekend.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 11:51 am
by The Frugal Gourmet
B Kat wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 11:47 am Finally an OT win for Dallas. They live to see another day, which is fine because I’m home all weekend.
It feels unusually good for just keeping the Gentlemen's Sweep in tact but there are a couple of other factors I guess:

1) Benn not going to be affected next season.
2) Finally won an OT.
3) Finally won after giving up the first goal.

Game 5 seems like the one the Stars *should* be eliminated in, but if they are not... hoo boy. The statistics suddenly don't look that impossible anymore and you get something of a second line back.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 11:56 am
by B Kat
What is Dadanov's injury? Slight, out for the foreseeable future?

Finally Dallas looked better than Vegas, not by that much and not all night, but pretty consistently they held their own.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 11:58 am
by The Frugal Gourmet
B Kat wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 11:56 am What is Dadanov's injury? Slight, out for the foreseeable future?
I wondered that myself during game 4. I thought we could've really used a neat skill play in there to not go to OT.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 12:02 pm
by ToddM
B Kat wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 11:56 am What is Dadanov's injury? Slight, out for the foreseeable future?

Finally Dallas looked better than Vegas, not by that much and not all night, but pretty consistently they held their own.
I thought it was pretty even at the start, then we dominated in the latter part of the first and most of the second, then we weathered their dominance in the third. Very evenly-matched teams, really. Had we not gotten that powerplay it might have gone on for a while.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 12:05 pm
by B Kat
It was lucky to get that PP. They weren't calling much and at first I thought the ref didn't see the high stick.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 12:06 pm
by The Frugal Gourmet
Saad keeps claiming from an expected goals perspective the Stars should actually be winning this series.

That's hard for me to believe since I saw Otter stop breakways, odd man rushes, one timers from the slot.

But when I think about it, so did the other guy.

I also on some level have to believe that hockey series come down to more than just luck, whether that's true or not.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 12:07 pm
by The Frugal Gourmet
B Kat wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 12:05 pm It was lucky to get that PP. They weren't calling much and at first I thought the ref didn't see the high stick.
They didn't see it. Or at least most of them didn't. They required a little conference.

Ty's face came up clutch for us.

This was the first game were our supposed special teams superiority actually mattered.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 12:27 pm
by B Kat
The Frugal Gourmet wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 12:06 pm Saad keeps claiming from an expected goals perspective the Stars should actually be winning this series.

That's hard for me to believe since I saw Otter stop breakways, odd man rushes, one timers from the slot.

But when I think about it, so did the other guy.

I also on some level have to believe that hockey series come down to more than just luck, whether that's true or not.
I don't prescribe to fancy stats. I get it and it's a way to quantify what we see with our eyes, but sorry, the Stars should not be winning the series. Even though the games have been close (most), Vegas is harder on the puck, wins the battles, is more cohesive as a team, smoother and more fluid. Their goalie has been better than Jake. Even in last night's game, especially early they controlled the game. But finally Dallas pushed thru and they started winning some of the battles.

I did like the lines that DeBoer used last night. It took a bit for them to gel, but they worked.

Luck does come into play, but most time, it's because the better team is making their luck as opposed to just random luck.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 12:28 pm
by The Frugal Gourmet
B Kat wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 12:27 pm
The Frugal Gourmet wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 12:06 pm Saad keeps claiming from an expected goals perspective the Stars should actually be winning this series.

That's hard for me to believe since I saw Otter stop breakways, odd man rushes, one timers from the slot.

But when I think about it, so did the other guy.

I also on some level have to believe that hockey series come down to more than just luck, whether that's true or not.
I don't prescribe to fancy stats. I get it and it's a way to quantify what we see with our eyes, but sorry, the Stars should not be winning the series. Even though the games have been close (most), Vegas is harder on the puck, wins the battles, is more cohesive as a team, smoother and more fluid. Their goalie has been better than Jake. Even in last night's game, especially early they controlled the game. But finally Dallas pushed thru and they started winning some of the battles.

I did like the lines that DeBoer used last night. It took a bit for them to gel, but they worked.

Luck does come into play, but most time, it's because the better team is making their luck as opposed to just random luck.
Agreed.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 12:32 pm
by mookie1010
I like fancy stats, but they seem to apply a lot of the gambling strategies and theories that I'm not sure translate like for like.

I'll bet that about 85% of fancy stats are valuable.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 12:34 pm
by slaps
I think fancy stats can give you a good big-picture overview of a team and a player. But that they don't tell the whole story.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 1:05 pm
by B Kat
Fancy stats are trying to quantify what we see with our eyes. I think they are valuable to an extent. But they just sound funny. Oh, wow, we won by scoring more "expected" goals.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 1:22 pm
by mookie1010
Fancy stats are like all information is now - we're searching for the patterns in the noise. Lots and lots and lots of data that we're still kind of in the embryonic stages of understanding.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 3:48 pm
by ToddM
Fancy stats are great because they get through the noise and the old-school biases. For example, guys who would block tons of shots were once (still!) said to be defensive 'warriors'... fancy stats showed that these guys block tons of shots because they don't have the skills or ability to get out of their own zone.
So when Faksa dives to block a shot and limps off and the announcers are all "that's what it takes blah blah blah," the fancy stats guys cringe and are more like "Faksa just turned the puck over twice and as a result spent 45 seconds in his own zone *for no reason*. He sucks."

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 5:41 pm
by ToddM
Looking at the replay, it looks like Marcessault chopped Suter like he was splitting logs right before the goal:


Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 6:02 pm
by The Frugal Gourmet
ToddM wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 5:41 pm Looking at the replay, it looks like Marcessault chopped Suter like he was splitting logs right before the goal:

Not the first time this playoffs.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 7:20 pm
by ScubaSteve
That must have been in honor of Tina Turner

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 7:39 pm
by SaintAngerBH
The Frugal Gourmet wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 11:51 am
B Kat wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 11:47 am Finally an OT win for Dallas. They live to see another day, which is fine because I’m home all weekend.
It feels unusually good for just keeping the Gentlemen's Sweep in tact but there are a couple of other factors I guess:

1) Benn not going to be affected next season.
2) Finally won an OT.
3) Finally won after giving up the first goal.

Game 5 seems like the one the Stars *should* be eliminated in, but if they are not... hoo boy. The statistics suddenly don't look that impossible anymore and you get something of a second line back.
The lack of comebacks throughout history is actually a little odd to me. Teams win 4 in a row fairly commonly in the regular season and for a team to make it to round 3, they have to be at least above average.

If you focus only on winning one game at a time, it does not seem so crazy to think that a team could pull it off.

It must be mostly a mental thing. You're down 3-0 and you believe you're going to lose.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 7:41 pm
by SaintAngerBH
ToddM wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:48 pm Fancy stats are great because they get through the noise and the old-school biases. For example, guys who would block tons of shots were once (still!) said to be defensive 'warriors'... fancy stats showed that these guys block tons of shots because they don't have the skills or ability to get out of their own zone.
So when Faksa dives to block a shot and limps off and the announcers are all "that's what it takes blah blah blah," the fancy stats guys cringe and are more like "Faksa just turned the puck over twice and as a result spent 45 seconds in his own zone *for no reason*. He sucks."
This makes me think of Craig Ludwig. He was not always the best at clearing the zone and, because this was the dark ages, he himself admitted he would just flip the puck over the glass to stop play instead.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 8:09 pm
by The Frugal Gourmet
I remember when shooting the puck over the glass was smart.

I loved when we did it.

Then we were completely cycling several shifts in a row in the Red Wings zone and they kept doing it over and over. I remember Daryl Reaugh complaining that the refs refused to call it delay of game.

Which is why we have automatic delay of game now. It's shitty and random. I hate it. But I guess it sucked worse before.

If they could've actually gotten refs to call penalties in the 90s when it was obvious teams were intentionally doing it we might not have needed to have it.

Re: WCF GM4 05/25 vs Golden Knights (7PM CT) - Love's Old Sweep Song

Posted: Fri May 26, 2023 8:29 pm
by ScubaSteve
I actually love that rule, it’s basically the one penalty that is not a discretionary call from the ref. The puck either went over the glass straight from a defensive player’s stick without touching anything, or it didn’t.