4/23 vs Kraken (7PM CT) - Easy two points

[Troy McClure]

Seattle got embarrassed last night giving up five goals in the second period to the Wild, pushing Kaprizov over 100 points.

Probably see Dreidger in net. He beat the Stars earlier this month.

[Troy McClure]

Big Game Jake starts.

[Knives Out]

After tonight, Vegas will have a game in hand on US.

[Troy McClure]

After tonight, Vegas will have a game in hand on US.

But I was promised for months the games in hand all work to the Stars' advantage.

[Knives Out]

I ...

[5minmajor]

Well that 1st period sucked

[Troy McClure]

I ...

am not all that surprised.

[ScubaSteve]

As usual Oleksiak is the most productive Jamie involved in a Stars game

[Troy McClure]

Stars dominate the faceoff dot and are down by two, yet 90% of Bowness's lineup focus seems to be on winning faceoffs. He's chasing a stat that doesn't matter.

[Troy McClure]

One line team ties it thanks to one line.

[5minmajor]

That was better

[Knives Out]

Pavs got his 500th assist tonight.

[Knives Out]

Nashville lost, so that’s cool.

[BigAl]

Stars dominate the faceoff dot and are down by two, yet 90% of Bowness's lineup focus seems to be on winning faceoffs. He's chasing a stat that doesn't matter.

Maybe it only works in 2nd periods?

[BigAl]

Stars prove that with hard work and intense focus they can beat the worst teams in the league half of the time.

[Troy McClure]

The third period turtle was successful this time, too. Helps when the opponent is pretty shitty.

[wonko80]

You could tell the Kraken didn't really care because they didn't pull their goalie until 1:30ish left eve though they'd had minutes of solid zone time before that.

[Troy McClure]

You could tell the Kraken didn't really care because they didn't pull their goalie until 1:30ish left eve though they'd had minutes of solid zone time before that.

Seattle now sits with the 3rd worst record. A win puts them over Philly for #4. The organizations incentive is a nice loss.

[ToddM]

Troy, Frugal, and I got to meet Marty Turco. That was nifty.

[The Frugal Gourmet]

Stars dominate the faceoff dot and are down by two, yet 90% of Bowness's lineup focus seems to be on winning faceoffs. He's chasing a stat that doesn't matter.

It used to matter. Free possession is often a big advantage. We've somehow managed to make it not matter that much.

[The Frugal Gourmet]

Troy, Frugal, and I got to meet Marty Turco. That was nifty.

While Turco was with us, the Stars scored all 3 goals.

Also, he bought us $140 worth of beers.

[BigAl]

I know how much everyone loves math, so here is some for you all to promptly ignore or misinterpret.

A team on average has roughly 60 face offs per game and 30 SOG per game.
30 SOG — one shot every 2 minutes.
Assume* a face off win nets 30 seconds of possession time (basically one short shift).
If the Stars win 4% more face offs, that’s .04 x 60 x 30 = 72 seconds of extra possession.
(1 SOG/ 120s) x 72s = .6 extra shots per game.
.6 x 82 = 49.2 shots per season.

If Hintz, our best shooter by a smidge, takes all those shots at 18.3 % goals per shot, then that’s 9 extra goals per season.
If Heiskanen, one of our worst shooters at 2.3%, takes the shots then it’s 1 extra goal per season.
The average NHL shooter shoots at approx. 10%, so 5 extra goals.


*huge assumption not based on any facts.

[wonko80]

I'd say 30 seconds is very generous for how long they'd possess the puck give that entire shifts are 45 seconds. Maybe more like 15 seconds would be better?

[BigAl]

I figure if you win the face off then odds are you have possession for the majority of the shift. 15 seconds seems to low, 22 seconds would probably be slightly conservative, 30 seconds slightly optimistic.

[Troy McClure]

I know how much everyone loves math, so here is some for you all to promptly ignore or misinterpret.

A team on average has roughly 60 face offs per game and 30 SOG per game.
30 SOG — one shot every 2 minutes.
Assume* a face off win nets 30 seconds of possession time (basically one short shift).
If the Stars win 4% more face offs, that’s .04 x 60 x 30 = 72 seconds of extra possession.
(1 SOG/ 120s) x 72s = .6 extra shots per game.
.6 x 82 = 49.2 shots per season.

If Hintz, our best shooter by a smidge, takes all those shots at 18.3 % goals per shot, then that’s 9 extra goals per season.
If Heiskanen, one of our worst shooters at 2.3%, takes the shots then it’s 1 extra goal per season.
The average NHL shooter shoots at approx. 10%, so 5 extra goals.


*huge assumption not based on any facts.

As you highlight, even with all of these assumptions, there is negligible difference, especially when the reality of these extra shots getting sprinkled across the lineup and not all falling to your best shooters.

I think faceoff wins matter more in certain situations like on PP/PK, very late in close games, or in 3v3 OT, but those are situations where a coach can manipulate who is out there very easily to maximize the odds of winning the draw. But even the best faceoff guys are winning 60% of their draws, which is not an overwhelming advantage.

[The Frugal Gourmet]

I think the Stars percentage probably goes down in big situations anyway, but it can matter.

I remember being frustrated at how often the red wings would win a key face off and score a huge crash the net goal in the same possession.

While we are at it, though, face offs are most often completely unjust. If one team sends it out, the other team should simply get possession with a lateral or backwards touch required for the first touch.

[Troy McClure]

I think the Stars percentage probably goes down in big situations anyway, but it can matter.

I remember being frustrated at how often the red wings would win a key face off and score a huge crash the net goal in the same possession.

While we are at it, though, face offs are most often completely unjust. If one team sends it out, the other team should simply get possession with a lateral or backwards touch required for the first touch.

This gets to why it is coaches finally embraced letting players shoot at the open net from their own end. Coaches used to freak out if guys iced it shooting on an empty net, but now they know the absolute worst outcome is being punished with a faceoff you're still 50/50 likely to win.