2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:57 am

Some fun light-hearted fun. I guess it's not really gambling if you can only lose money.



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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby SaintAngerBH » Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:31 am

Math wrote:
SaintAngerBH wrote:Found this image on the main site. Part of the winter classic jersey?


Seems to be the patch on the arms, with large numbers probably on the shoulders. We will have the answer in four days.


I think the main logo is on the right-hand side of the image too. That looks like a small part of the big D.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby BigAl » Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:11 pm

Hey, you guys like math, right? Especially Math. I bet he likes math.

I calculated the amount of extra shooting our guys will need to do in order to reach last years totals, based on their shooting percentage last year.

(edit: rearranged some columns)
ShotStats2.PNG
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Could of.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:15 pm

And just to be clear, this is the extra shooting needed to get back up to last season's dreadfully underwhelming goal totals, right?
I got a ranch in downtown Dallas/I buy diamonds by the ton/Chase cuties in my Cadillac/Drill oil wells just for fun/But when it comes to boots, I need a deal/That will fit me right, toe to heel/So I get my boots at Western Warehouse.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby BigAl » Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:20 pm

Troy McClure wrote:And just to be clear, this is the extra shooting needed to get back up to last season's dreadfully underwhelming goal totals, right?

Yep.
Could of.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Math » Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:43 pm

BigAl wrote:Hey, you guys like math, right? Especially Math. I bet he likes math.

I calculated the amount of extra shooting our guys will need to do in order to reach last years totals, based on their shooting percentage last year.


Worse than that: I work in maths.

No surprises, Seguin and Benn highly ranked the trailing part. Being injured, Comeau will should has to reach his standards as long as the season goes by. Besides that, still need more contribution from the bottom-6. We can consider that Gurianov and Heiskanen are bonuses while the other are slumping.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby BigAl » Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:22 pm

What surprises me, after looking at their historical stats, is that Benn's accuracy has been higher than Seguin's.
Career-wise Been has shot at 13.3% and Seguin at 11%. I wouldn't have guessed that Seguin was quite so dependent on volume shooting for his goal totals.

Both players have dropped this year in both categories of shots and pct.

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Could of.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:30 pm

That's not really too surprising. Benn tends to pass up a LOT of shots in favor of drop passes and extra dekes.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Math » Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:56 pm

Here's the difference between the first 9 games and the last 7. No surprises about the goals scored per game (GFA) and goal against (GAA) and the PP. Surprisingly the PK shows identical percentages as I thought the better tenure in this aspect would translate in better numbers. Slightly more shots on goals but also more shots allowed. Both goalies also went into last year's level but also the save pct. necessary to pretend going into the playoffs. It would have been better to dig a bit into more advanced indicators like the scoring chances (for and against) and shots locations, blocked and overall.

A huge gap between these two sequences which have in common the same coach, same GM, same roster (more or less), same personnel but maybe different tasks and responsibilities shared between assistants. So would it be reasonable to point the players in first place for that hideous start rather than the coach/GM even if concerns about them were legitimate ?
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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby The Frugal Gourmet » Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:00 pm

Even ignoring stats Honestly they had some early games that were decent, but they crept back into the old Stars mode of giving up huge disappointing goals in the biggest moments.

And never got a single clutch goal.

It’s little things, but like yesterday after controlling almost two periods of hockey they were still up by 1 goal. One big breakdown there, the momentum shifts, and there could be a completely different game today. I thought that was happening a lot.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:58 am

Regression to the mean.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby slaps » Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:25 pm

https://theathletic.com/1347306/2019/11/04/shap-shots-what-do-nhl-scouts-say-about-the-stars-resurgence/

But I was also curious to pick the brains of some outsiders who have watched the team at least a couple of times this season.

So I polled a handful of scouts, anonymously, with none of these conversations happening at a Dallas game to guarantee full honesty.


Two that stood out to me:

“*f-bomb*, Heiskanen is so good. He’s gotten even better than last season. There aren’t many defensemen in the league — not just young ones, all of them — that impact a game like him all three zones. I think he knows that now. He’s playing more like he knows that he’s the best player on the ice.”


“I think it’s the players; they had to figure it out, and maybe they did this week. With top players like they have, the only thing a coach can do is really get in the way if he coaches too much. You shouldn’t have to tell Seguin or Pavelski how to play the game. They just go out and do it. It doesn’t matter who coaches real top players, they succeed either way.”
Slaps has upvoted BKat.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:13 pm

I hadn't realized that Fedun has more points than Klingberg.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby #JTONTFJTGM » Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:32 am

SaintAngerBH wrote:
#JTONTFJTGM wrote:
ScubaSteve wrote:I’m willing to admit that Modano was the 4th or 5th best player on the 99 Cup team.

SaintAngerBH wrote:BTW:

Brett Hull: 741 goals, 650 assists in 1269 games good for 1.10 points per game
Sergei Zubov: 152 goals, 771 assists in 1068 games good for 0.864 points per game as a defenseman
Joe Nieuwendyk: 564 goals, 562 assists in 1257 games good for 0.896 points per game
Mike Modano: 561 goals, 813 assists in 1499 games good for 0.917 points per game

Modano was only marginally better than Nieuwendyk, so at best he was 3rd on that team in talent if you exclude Belfour because he is a goalie and Lehtinen because his intangibles and Selkes are hard to compare.

Their three seasons as teammates with the Stars in the 1999, 2000 and 2001 playoffs:

Mike Modano: 55 games, 18 goals, 35 assists, 53 points, 0.964 points per game
Brett Hull: 55 games, 21 goals, 25 assists, 46 points, 0.836 points per game
Joe Nieuwendyk: 53 games, 22 goals, 13 assists, 35 points, 0.66 points per game
Sergei Zubov: 51 games, 4 goals, 24 assists, 28 points, 0.549 points per game
Jere Lehtinen: 46 games, 12 goals, 8 assists, 20 points, 0.435 points per game

During those playoffs the Stars lost the only games Modano (2-1 loss in Game 2 of the second round against the Blues in 2001) and Hull (2-1 loss in Game 4 of the 1999 Final in Buffalo) missed due to injury, won two of the three games Nieuwendyk missed (3-2 overtime win in Game 3, 2-1 overtime loss in Game 4 and 4-3 overtime win in Game 5 of the first round against the Oilers in 2001), beat the Oilers four games to one in the first round in 2000 when Zubov and Lehtinen didn't play in the series, and beat the Sharks four games to one in the next round when Lehtinen didn't play in the series.

The Stars lost Game 7 of their 2007 first round series (4-1 with two, late empty-net goals) in Vancouver without Zubov but beat the defending Stanley Cup Champion Anaheim Ducks in six games in the first round of the 2008 playoffs and won the first game of their next series in San Jose without him, making them 9-4 in the playoffs when he didn't play.

With two of the nine goals the defending Stanley Cup Champion Stars scored against the Devils in the 2000 Final occurring when trailing 7-1 in the third period of Game 1, they were eliminated in double overtime of Game 6 of a series in which Modano (Game 5's only goal in triple overtime, three assists, even plus/minus) and Hull (both goals in Game 2's 2-1 win, two assists, minus-2) each scored four points, Lehtinen scored three points (all assists, plus-1), Nieuwendyk scored one goal, had no assists and was minus-4, and Zubov scored no points and was minus-5.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/2000-dallas-stars-vs-new-jersey-devils-stanley-cup-final.html

So, basically, you're overtly cherry picking your data. You're using a sample (a 3 season window) to estimate population (entire career) parameters while I am using the actual population parameters to show that your small sample size (3 season window) doesn't represent the population (entire career) very well.

Then, you spewed out a bunch of anecdotal, individual cases that do not in any way refute what Scuba or I said about Modano.

There's no need to refute what Steven wrote because, as I stated earlier in this thread, you managed to do that simply by agreeing with it.

What I included were facts that show how the players mentioned performed in the most important games they played in the only three seasons in which they were all together as teammates.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby SaintAngerBH » Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:25 am

#JTONTFJTGM wrote:
SaintAngerBH wrote:
#JTONTFJTGM wrote:
ScubaSteve wrote:I’m willing to admit that Modano was the 4th or 5th best player on the 99 Cup team.

SaintAngerBH wrote:BTW:

Brett Hull: 741 goals, 650 assists in 1269 games good for 1.10 points per game
Sergei Zubov: 152 goals, 771 assists in 1068 games good for 0.864 points per game as a defenseman
Joe Nieuwendyk: 564 goals, 562 assists in 1257 games good for 0.896 points per game
Mike Modano: 561 goals, 813 assists in 1499 games good for 0.917 points per game

Modano was only marginally better than Nieuwendyk, so at best he was 3rd on that team in talent if you exclude Belfour because he is a goalie and Lehtinen because his intangibles and Selkes are hard to compare.

Their three seasons as teammates with the Stars in the 1999, 2000 and 2001 playoffs:

Mike Modano: 55 games, 18 goals, 35 assists, 53 points, 0.964 points per game
Brett Hull: 55 games, 21 goals, 25 assists, 46 points, 0.836 points per game
Joe Nieuwendyk: 53 games, 22 goals, 13 assists, 35 points, 0.66 points per game
Sergei Zubov: 51 games, 4 goals, 24 assists, 28 points, 0.549 points per game
Jere Lehtinen: 46 games, 12 goals, 8 assists, 20 points, 0.435 points per game

During those playoffs the Stars lost the only games Modano (2-1 loss in Game 2 of the second round against the Blues in 2001) and Hull (2-1 loss in Game 4 of the 1999 Final in Buffalo) missed due to injury, won two of the three games Nieuwendyk missed (3-2 overtime win in Game 3, 2-1 overtime loss in Game 4 and 4-3 overtime win in Game 5 of the first round against the Oilers in 2001), beat the Oilers four games to one in the first round in 2000 when Zubov and Lehtinen didn't play in the series, and beat the Sharks four games to one in the next round when Lehtinen didn't play in the series.

The Stars lost Game 7 of their 2007 first round series (4-1 with two, late empty-net goals) in Vancouver without Zubov but beat the defending Stanley Cup Champion Anaheim Ducks in six games in the first round of the 2008 playoffs and won the first game of their next series in San Jose without him, making them 9-4 in the playoffs when he didn't play.

With two of the nine goals the defending Stanley Cup Champion Stars scored against the Devils in the 2000 Final occurring when trailing 7-1 in the third period of Game 1, they were eliminated in double overtime of Game 6 of a series in which Modano (Game 5's only goal in triple overtime, three assists, even plus/minus) and Hull (both goals in Game 2's 2-1 win, two assists, minus-2) each scored four points, Lehtinen scored three points (all assists, plus-1), Nieuwendyk scored one goal, had no assists and was minus-4, and Zubov scored no points and was minus-5.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/2000-dallas-stars-vs-new-jersey-devils-stanley-cup-final.html

So, basically, you're overtly cherry picking your data. You're using a sample (a 3 season window) to estimate population (entire career) parameters while I am using the actual population parameters to show that your small sample size (3 season window) doesn't represent the population (entire career) very well.

Then, you spewed out a bunch of anecdotal, individual cases that do not in any way refute what Scuba or I said about Modano.

There's no need to refute what Steven wrote because, as I stated earlier in this thread, you managed to do that simply by agreeing with it.

What I included were facts that show how the players mentioned performed in the most important games they played in the only three seasons in which they were all together as teammates.


Seriously, go take a statistics or biostatistics class at a community college or state university and then get back to me. You don't seem to understand why small sample sizes are bad or why single case anecdotes are meaningless when it comes to looking at the bigger picture.

Mike Modano was not more talented or more accomplished than Brett Hull or Sergei Zubov when you take into account their entire careers. That is the point Scuba and I made and your posts do not in anyway provide evidence against this claim. Saying that my agreeing with Scuba refutes Scuba's point repeatedly doesn't make it true.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby #JTONTFJTGM » Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:01 am

SaintAngerBH wrote:
#JTONTFJTGM wrote:
SaintAngerBH wrote:
#JTONTFJTGM wrote:
ScubaSteve wrote:I’m willing to admit that Modano was the 4th or 5th best player on the 99 Cup team.

SaintAngerBH wrote:BTW:

Brett Hull: 741 goals, 650 assists in 1269 games good for 1.10 points per game
Sergei Zubov: 152 goals, 771 assists in 1068 games good for 0.864 points per game as a defenseman
Joe Nieuwendyk: 564 goals, 562 assists in 1257 games good for 0.896 points per game
Mike Modano: 561 goals, 813 assists in 1499 games good for 0.917 points per game

Modano was only marginally better than Nieuwendyk, so at best he was 3rd on that team in talent if you exclude Belfour because he is a goalie and Lehtinen because his intangibles and Selkes are hard to compare.

Their three seasons as teammates with the Stars in the 1999, 2000 and 2001 playoffs:

Mike Modano: 55 games, 18 goals, 35 assists, 53 points, 0.964 points per game
Brett Hull: 55 games, 21 goals, 25 assists, 46 points, 0.836 points per game
Joe Nieuwendyk: 53 games, 22 goals, 13 assists, 35 points, 0.66 points per game
Sergei Zubov: 51 games, 4 goals, 24 assists, 28 points, 0.549 points per game
Jere Lehtinen: 46 games, 12 goals, 8 assists, 20 points, 0.435 points per game

During those playoffs the Stars lost the only games Modano (2-1 loss in Game 2 of the second round against the Blues in 2001) and Hull (2-1 loss in Game 4 of the 1999 Final in Buffalo) missed due to injury, won two of the three games Nieuwendyk missed (3-2 overtime win in Game 3, 2-1 overtime loss in Game 4 and 4-3 overtime win in Game 5 of the first round against the Oilers in 2001), beat the Oilers four games to one in the first round in 2000 when Zubov and Lehtinen didn't play in the series, and beat the Sharks four games to one in the next round when Lehtinen didn't play in the series.

The Stars lost Game 7 of their 2007 first round series (4-1 with two, late empty-net goals) in Vancouver without Zubov but beat the defending Stanley Cup Champion Anaheim Ducks in six games in the first round of the 2008 playoffs and won the first game of their next series in San Jose without him, making them 9-4 in the playoffs when he didn't play.

With two of the nine goals the defending Stanley Cup Champion Stars scored against the Devils in the 2000 Final occurring when trailing 7-1 in the third period of Game 1, they were eliminated in double overtime of Game 6 of a series in which Modano (Game 5's only goal in triple overtime, three assists, even plus/minus) and Hull (both goals in Game 2's 2-1 win, two assists, minus-2) each scored four points, Lehtinen scored three points (all assists, plus-1), Nieuwendyk scored one goal, had no assists and was minus-4, and Zubov scored no points and was minus-5.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/playoffs/2000-dallas-stars-vs-new-jersey-devils-stanley-cup-final.html

So, basically, you're overtly cherry picking your data. You're using a sample (a 3 season window) to estimate population (entire career) parameters while I am using the actual population parameters to show that your small sample size (3 season window) doesn't represent the population (entire career) very well.

Then, you spewed out a bunch of anecdotal, individual cases that do not in any way refute what Scuba or I said about Modano.

There's no need to refute what Steven wrote because, as I stated earlier in this thread, you managed to do that simply by agreeing with it.

What I included were facts that show how the players mentioned performed in the most important games they played in the only three seasons in which they were all together as teammates.

Seriously, go take a statistics or biostatistics class at a community college or state university and then get back to me. You don't seem to understand why small sample sizes are bad or why single case anecdotes are meaningless when it comes to looking at the bigger picture.

Mike Modano was not more talented or more accomplished than Brett Hull or Sergei Zubov when you take into account their entire careers. That is the point Scuba and I made and your posts do not in anyway provide evidence against this claim. Saying that my agreeing with Scuba refutes Scuba's point repeatedly doesn't make it true.

Who gives a *poo poo* what anyone believes regular season statistics prove about a hockey player's ability? If regular season performance is the standard by which the best hockey players and teams are determined then why isn't the Stanley Cup awarded at the moment the regular season ends?

The players we've discussed all played together for the same coach and in the same system for three seasons during which they played in more than 50 playoff games to determine whether their names would be engraved on the Stanley Cup. That's not a small sample size of the most important, grueling and difficult games they'd play in with 32 of them featuring four of the greatest goaltenders of all-time playing for the opposing teams.

Mike Modano outscored all of his teammates in those games and his all-encompassing performance, along with Ed Belfour's goaltending (sans cough medicine), was the biggest reason the Stars won the Stanley Cup and came as close as they did to winning it again the next season.

That's the biggest picture that players look back on when their careers are finished.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Math » Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:23 am

ToddM wrote:I hadn't realized that Fedun has more points than Klingberg.


Oleskiak also has more points.

We need to talk about John.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby slaps » Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:49 am

#JTONTFJTGM wrote:Who gives a *poo poo* what anyone believes regular season statistics prove about a hockey player's ability? If regular season performance is the standard by which the best hockey players and teams are determined then why isn't the Stanley Cup awarded at the moment the regular season ends?

The players we've discussed all played together for the same coach and in the same system for three seasons during which they played in more than 50 playoff games to determine whether their names would be engraved on the Stanley Cup. That's not a small sample size of the most important, grueling and difficult games they'd play in with 32 of them featuring four of the greatest goaltenders of all-time playing for the opposing teams.

Mike Modano outscored all of his teammates in those games and his all-encompassing performance, along with Ed Belfour's goaltending (sans cough medicine), was the biggest reason the Stars won the Stanley Cup and came as close as they did to winning it again the next season.

That's the biggest picture that players look back on when their careers are finished.


If the regular season doesn't matter, then why not just skip it and go straight to the playoffs?

It all matters. The Blues were not the best team in hockey last year, the Lightning were, and the playoffs don't change that.
Slaps has upvoted BKat.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby 5minmajor » Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:36 pm

And they will be celebrated and remembered for it forever,
"It has been my experience that folks who have no vices, have very few virtues."
-- Abraham Lincoln

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby The Frugal Gourmet » Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:18 pm

Disagree. The Carolina hurricanes were much better than the Lightning.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby SaintAngerBH » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:58 pm

That was just a bunch of emotional pleas and strawmen, again showing his total ignorance to how statistics actually work.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby SaintAngerBH » Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:00 pm

slaps wrote:
#JTONTFJTGM wrote:Who gives a *poo poo* what anyone believes regular season statistics prove about a hockey player's ability? If regular season performance is the standard by which the best hockey players and teams are determined then why isn't the Stanley Cup awarded at the moment the regular season ends?

The players we've discussed all played together for the same coach and in the same system for three seasons during which they played in more than 50 playoff games to determine whether their names would be engraved on the Stanley Cup. That's not a small sample size of the most important, grueling and difficult games they'd play in with 32 of them featuring four of the greatest goaltenders of all-time playing for the opposing teams.

Mike Modano outscored all of his teammates in those games and his all-encompassing performance, along with Ed Belfour's goaltending (sans cough medicine), was the biggest reason the Stars won the Stanley Cup and came as close as they did to winning it again the next season.

That's the biggest picture that players look back on when their careers are finished.


If the regular season doesn't matter, then why not just skip it and go straight to the playoffs?

It all matters. The Blues were not the best team in hockey last year, the Lightning were, and the playoffs don't change that.


The bottom line to me is that Hull scored many more goals and won more cups. Zubov was easily the best defenseman in the entire world next to maybe only Lidstrom. Modano's stats are on par with above average Canadians like Pierre Turgeon. Not that special.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby BigAl » Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:33 am

Could of.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ScubaSteve » Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:35 am

Hanley should be able to fill in not scoring while Klingberg is out.
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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby wonko80 » Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:57 am

So Benn is on pace for 5 goals and 24 assists this season... Yet he has two shifts where he throws a hit and people call it "Beast Mode". More like "Least Mode".

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby SaintAngerBH » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:40 pm

Yeah. I'm tired of the Benn apologists.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ScubaSteve » Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:44 pm

I don’t know. Personally I’m having a great time tracking the Benn vs Fedun vs Oleksiak scoring race.
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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:36 pm

It smells like this thing is another losing streak away from completely imploding.

First, you have Monty trying to unsay what he was feeling.



Then you have Seguin returning fire.



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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby BigAl » Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:49 pm

If Benn scores 5.25 goals tonight he’ll be back on pace to match last season’s total.
Could of.

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Re: 2019-2020 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Thu Nov 14, 2019 1:05 pm

Do you mean if he scores 5.25 goals and also keeps up a per game scoring pace that includes those goals?
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