GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby The Frugal Gourmet » Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:11 am

slaps wrote:As good a signing as Polak was, I really hope he goes after a real top-4 defenseman. Sounds like Myers and Trouba may both be available.


Polak was actually awesome last night I thought.

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby wonko80 » Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:23 am

He played better than Honka, that's for sure.

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby slaps » Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:28 am

Image

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby ToddM » Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:28 am

Polak nearly ended it in OT when he flailed around on the ice, throwing Bishop off and lucking out when Jankrok or whoever bounced their empty net shot off the crossbar.

But other than that, he was decent.

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby slaps » Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:29 am

Polak has been generally fine, especially for his salary. But there are better options available this summer.

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby The Frugal Gourmet » Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:37 am

Stephen Johns?

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby cdanew » Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:46 am

slaps wrote:Image


On a different note, one of my boys noticed the game program had the Winnipeg coaches and management listed, instead of Nashville's. Wonder if the Stars were expecting a different first round opponent and forgot to change that part at the last minute? :lol:

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby ToddM » Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:53 pm


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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby ScubaSteve » Tue Apr 23, 2019 2:36 pm

It was weird being in OT and not being certain you’re going to lose on the first shot because you have Kari in goal
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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby slaps » Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:42 pm

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby cdanew » Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:30 am

Saw this is an Athletic article previewing the Stars/Blues series. In an article that largely focused on various analytics, here are a couple of quotes which make no sense to me from an eyeball test:

Going into the series, the focus was on the Stars’ stingy defence that was top 10 in expected goals allowed at 5-on-5 and even better in terms of actual goals thanks to elite goaltending. That’s not what transpired as the Stars were the most porous team by expected goals in these playoffs, so much so that the team ranked 12th in goals allowed despite Ben Bishop’s save percentage being nearly identical to his regular season mark. While every other team’s defence became tighter, the Stars’ unexpectedly faltered.


What? The Stars defense faltered? Over the six games, they allowed an average of two goals against and two of those went to OT! How the hell do you say their defense faltered?

And then there was this quote:
For the Stars, they may have out-scored the Predators, but it’s difficult to argue they out-played the team completely, especially to the degree that their Elo adjustment suggests.


That is a statement from someone who did not watch the series. Maybe I'm biased, but I thought the Stars out-played the Predators by a pretty decent margin in five of the six games. I don't think I'm alone in that assessment either. The series very easily could have been done in five.

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby slaps » Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:36 am

There are certainly some issues with the team, but saying their defense was bad is egregiously wrong. They were completely stifling the Predators at almost ever turn from Game 2 on.

And the Stars very much outplayed the Predators throughout most of the series. Both goaltenders were phenomenal, but the Stars had the edge in both discipline and sticking to the game plan almost all the way through. Rinne is the only reason it wasn't done in 5.

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby B Kat » Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:53 am

The Preds were rarely scary during any of the 6 games. The Stars on the other hand were very scary. Especially the Seguin line. How's that for fancy stats?

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby slaps » Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:07 pm

If we can get a legitimate top-4 defenseman this summer, we'll have a better blueline than the Predators do.

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby ScubaSteve » Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:10 pm

With what money? Paying Lindell and Zuc will eat all the cap space you free up from Spezza leaving.
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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby slaps » Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:22 pm

They'll have around $18MM in cap space. Lindell should get, what, around $5.75MM or so for 8 years? Zuccarello is a weird one. He can score, but he's on the wrong side of 30.

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby mookie1010 » Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:24 pm

cdanew wrote:Saw this is an Athletic article previewing the Stars/Blues series. In an article that largely focused on various analytics, here are a couple of quotes which make no sense to me from an eyeball test:

Going into the series, the focus was on the Stars’ stingy defence that was top 10 in expected goals allowed at 5-on-5 and even better in terms of actual goals thanks to elite goaltending. That’s not what transpired as the Stars were the most porous team by expected goals in these playoffs, so much so that the team ranked 12th in goals allowed despite Ben Bishop’s save percentage being nearly identical to his regular season mark. While every other team’s defence became tighter, the Stars’ unexpectedly faltered.


What? The Stars defense faltered? Over the six games, they allowed an average of two goals against and two of those went to OT! How the hell do you say their defense faltered?

And then there was this quote:
For the Stars, they may have out-scored the Predators, but it’s difficult to argue they out-played the team completely, especially to the degree that their Elo adjustment suggests.


That is a statement from someone who did not watch the series. Maybe I'm biased, but I thought the Stars out-played the Predators by a pretty decent margin in five of the six games. I don't think I'm alone in that assessment either. The series very easily could have been done in five.

Yeah, those are words from someone who watched the series through a spreadsheet. Troy touched on this in the NFL thread, but the thing about analytics for me is this: They originated and were very successful in baseball, but that's because baseball is largely the exact same plays repeated by the same players in a similar place on the field. Because of this repeat-ability, measuring potential outcomes is more accurate. The same is not true in other sports, and the stat people aren't good at accounting for that variability.
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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby wonko80 » Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:06 pm

Yeah, in that article he directly mentioned their Expected Goals Against went way up compared to the regular season, so that somehow means they were worse. Not actual goals against, mind you, but expected.

Yet again a problem with "advanced" stats. Often times I think it is a disservice to call them all advanced stats when there isn't always a lot of proof that they are truly representative of what is happening on the ice.

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby ToddM » Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:11 pm

What's the link to the article? Is it Sean Shapiro or some national hockey schlub?

Maybe they looked at the total number of shots the Preds had (which were a LOT), and didn't figure in just how many of those were toothless hopeshots from the boards? I mean, I guess if you figure that the average goalie has a save percentage of around .900 or so, that one in ten shots will go in. So, like in the last game, we should've allowed 5 instead of 1?

Then again, we DID allow a lot of grade-A chances, even in the last game (Lovejoy and most of Polak's shifts were cringe-inducing), but Bishop was up to the task almost every time.

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby BigAl » Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:17 pm

I think player talent should be measured by a wisdom of the masses statistic, such as crowd noise decibels per shift.
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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby mookie1010 » Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:20 pm

ToddM wrote:What's the link to the article? Is it Sean Shapiro or some national hockey schlub?



https://theathletic.com/942672/2019/04/ ... -vs-stars/
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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby B Kat » Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:43 pm

BigAl wrote:I think player talent should be measured by a wisdom of the masses statistic, such as crowd noise decibels per shift.

Possibly more accurate assessment of the play, actually.

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby ToddM » Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:11 pm

Ok, well the article isn't wrong. Just because Bishop somehow saves his bacon every single time doesn't mean that Polak's constant defensive gaffes aren't giving up grade-A 100% prime beef scoring chances every third shift. I said a month ago he's shitty enough to cost us a series, and he's still that shitty. How many times in Game 6 alone did he skate across the zone to cover a guy Heiskanen/Lindell already had covered, only to leave a guy wide open and alone in front of the net? We're lucky those were Predators flubbing those passes and making those weak-ass shot attempts. Try that against Tarasenko instead of Watson and see how many playoff games you win.

The article also pointed out what we've all already known all season: we're a one-line team offensively. And even tho Hintz/Dickinson/Zucc scored 7 goals last series, that was on a really high shooting percentage, and overall you shouldn't expect that to happen regularly. Whereas St. Louis is a bit more balanced across their lines (but really, according to that chart, maybe not as much as you'd think).

That said, other than Polak sucking and Bishop ruling, the two teams are pretty much the exact same. So I wouldn't be surprised if we pull off this one in 7 either.

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:22 pm

We're now on game 82+6 of the team having great defensive/PK numbers with Polak out there, so your "there's no correlation because Polak sucks" thing is getting a bit hard to swallow.

Besides, I'm sure you'd totally be cool with Polak being demoted and Lovejoy being given those minutes.
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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby ToddM » Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:27 pm

I think Lovejoy is Polak Jr. He physically cringes every time anyone passes him the puck in the corners.

For comparison's sake, here's that same writer's take on the Preds/Stars series, which he ranked as the third biggest mismatch in the playoffs (you can probably guess what the other two were, and how they ended):

https://theathletic.com/914658/2019/04/ ... -vs-stars/

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:59 pm

ToddM wrote:I think Lovejoy is Polak Jr. He physically cringes every time anyone passes him the puck in the corners.

Ok, but what's the alternative to either guy?
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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby ToddM » Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:12 pm

Fedun.

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Re: GDT: 4/22, Game 6, Stars vs Predators, 7:30pm

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:52 pm

ToddM wrote:Fedun.

Your wish has been granted. Sort of.

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