Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby One_Timer » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:19 am

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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby ToddM » Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:43 am

slaps wrote:Meanwhile, a variety of professional head coaches whose sole job is to win hockey games have all determined that Honka will not help them do that.


And it's been a long time since those guys were any good at doing that. "Winning", that is.

I've had some misses over the years but overall I think my talent eval skillz are solid. I was on record on saying Benn would be fantastic after his Memorial Cup run, on the record a bunch of times saying we should take Seguin off Boston's hands because he was extremely unlucky, underused on their third line, and bound to be totally amazing. I was eventually right about Campbell, who is pretty clearly NOW better than Fowler, but you'd never know that if you just trusted the coaches (or 4000+ posts on this board). I was right about Klingberg going to be amazing. I told you mofos Nemeth would be a solid defensive defensemen if he had a shot. I told you mofos that Reilly Smith was great in college, and the only reason he didn't score for *poo poo* in his rookie year here was because he was hopelessly unlucky and underused. I also pounded away at wanting to draft Barzal, and got the heebie-jeebies when he miraculously dropped into our lap.

On the other side, I told you guys before he even skated his first shift that Gonchar was horrible. That Hanzal was a total waste of a jersey. That signing guys like Kris Russell was idiotic (he basically cost us that Blues series. Well, him and Kari).

Meanwhile, every single Dallas coach that started shit-ass vets over promising young talent is now gone, after being mediocre or worse.

So yeah, I'm the idiot who judges players by their ability, instead of the ice time they're given by a coach who will last *at most* another hundred games (if he's lucky). A wasted 100 games, too, because Monty is just another in a long line of risk-averse, ultra-conservative dinosaurs who still coach like it's 1996. Under him and Hitch, literally the only thing the Stars lead the league in is icings. Honka doesn't ice it like the coach's favorites, so... time to ride the bench, boy!

But yeah, Honka must really "suck" because a coach who is completely indistinguishable from Randy Carlyle or Mike Yeo is more worried about Honka's occasional (bone-headed) turnovers than emphasizing and nurturing Honka's unique puck-handling, passing, and skating ability. Meanwhile, Polak gets 18 cringe-inducing minutes a night where he is utterly unable to clear the zone with the puck on his forehand, but he *must* be better because the rookie head coach *trusts him more*.

Now, I'm not there for practices, I don't watch hours and hours of tape. Obviously. But it's pretty disingenuous to judge a player's ability by his ice time. By that measure, guys like Max Domi and Dylan Strome must REALLY suck, because they got practically no ice time before they were dumped by the Coyotes. I mean, "if you can't even get top-6 minutes with the COYOTES, you must TRULY be a complete draft bust!" And now they're thriving on their new teams after seeing significant bumps in their ice times. Weird how that happens!

Systems dictate pretty much everything in team sports. And the last two have been pretty crappy for our young forwards' stats. The one and only time in the last 10+ years we had a coach who threw caution to the wind, we ended up with the #1 overall seed despite playing with Kari Lehtonen in goal. I was cautiously optimistic about Monty this summer because I thought we were getting that kind of coach. Obviously, we're not. So... we get more icings, more dump ins, more Safe Plays and Consistency and Predictability. And yet another year where we need about three or four other teams to *poo poo* their own beds so we can have a chance to squeak in as the second wildcard.

And you guys dump on the *only* young players who actually try carrying the puck into the zone (Val and Honka). Because sometimes they make mistakes trying to be creative with the puck? Do you also enjoy watching paint dry? Kevin James sitcoms? Jags-Titans on Thursday Night Football? I'll take Val blowing past three guys on the way to the net and at least trying to get a shot off (elevate!) than Blake "Oops! Better loop around a bit, wouldn't want to accidentally score!" Comeau and his 5th-on-the-Stars-in-ice-time snoozefest. Sheesh.

Teams that play it safe and sit on leads pretty much always drift into irrelevance over time. We've had a front-row seat to that for like 14 seasons. But it can't be the coaches or their cowardly systems and lineup decisions... nope, gotta be the players who mysteriously go to other teams and magically become just like the guys they were supposed to be when they were drafted! It's truly a mystery how that continues to happen honkasux lol 420/69 amirite?

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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby SaintAngerBH » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:30 am

TL;DR

Honka still sucks.
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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby B Kat » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:39 am

No one would like Honka to succeed more than me. At this point it’s not a battle between Honka and Polak, but Honka and Fedun, Carrick, Bayruether, Gleason and Hanley. And maybe his little spirit has been crushed, but those other players have beaten him out. Should he be given more time, both in the line up and in games? I think he has been given several opportunities this season. But every night a coach’s job is to win that game and multiple coaches have deemed other players are their best bet. I’m as sorry as you are.

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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:03 am

B Kat wrote:No one would like Honka to succeed more than me. At this point it’s not a battle between Honka and Polak, but Honka and Fedun, Carrick, Bayruether, Gleason and Hanley. And maybe his little spirit has been crushed, but those other players have beaten him out. Should he be given more time, both in the line up and in games? I think he has been given several opportunities this season. But every night a coach’s job is to win that game and multiple coaches have deemed other players are their best bet. I’m as sorry as you are.

And it's not like Honka has stepped up to seize the job. Even if every coach evaluating Honka is terrible and stupid, Honka also hasn't done himself any favors with his play. This has been true for three straight seasons. Ruff played him the most of any coach, but Honka didn't do a whole lot with that ice time when it comes to producing offense. For an offensive d-man, Honka sure does a terrible job of having his efforts result in pucks in nets. I mean, if Honka had all of these wonderful offensive skills, you'd think they would result in the occasional goal or assist.
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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby wonko80 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:26 am

Nemeth is a third pairing defenseman that from the couple of advanced stats I looked at is not doing that well. But that doesn't really matter. I'm not sure he really counts as a win because he wasn't really chased out of here by us. This entire board was frustrated that we carried 12 defensemen so none could really ever get any playing time to show what they had, Nemeth included. More frustrating was that Nill hung on to him so long all his value was gone, just like he's done with pretty much every prospect.

Also, no one here thinks Comeau is amazing. The problem is, for as much as his button hook routine sucks, he's at least scored 5 goals AND WE ALL ADMIT HE SUCKS AT OFFENSE. So even if he's getting more ice time, at some point Nichuskin just isn't getting anything accomplished from his entering the zone with the puck and "driving the net", which I don't actually think happens in reality. I'm not sure why Val is a player you feel you have to defend and find excuses for, but it's a bit baffling really.
Last edited by wonko80 on Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby ToddM » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:27 am

You're confusing ability with results. Hanzal can be skating at 2 mph with no hands (ability) and come in and have a puck bounce in off his ass in his second game (results), while Tyler Seguin can launch 11 shots on net and hit two crossbars (ability) and get zero goals (results). Doesn't mean Hanzal is better than Seguin, even for that one game. The results just weren't there for Seguin, despite playing at a really high level.

Honka hasn't played at a really high level, but he hasn't sucked either. Ruff gave him 17 minutes a night in his first season, and we got to see Honka do Honka-type stuff, like score and deke and pass. Hitch is the one who told Honka to play Fedun-type hockey, and get it off his stick in three seconds or less, which is when Honka stopped being Honka and started being some young kid with zero confidence (seriously, after Hitch he couldn't even score in the AHL). Monty is Hitch 2.0, so that's not going to be helpful either.

At some point (not in Dallas, obviously), he's going to land with a team that actually wants an offensive d-man to play like an offensive d-man instead of an icing machine. And "suddenly" "out of nowhere" he'll be the speedy, slick-skating d-man we saw before Hitch coached that *poo poo* out of him. And the conditional 6th we get for him will go to some guy who never cracks the OHL. And you guys will *goddess* and moan about our draft record, etc etc. It's the Circle of Dallas Hockey.

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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby wonko80 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:33 am

You are misremembering Honka's play under Ruff. He played 16 games for 1 G, 4A. That was a blistering pace of 5G, 20A for the entire season. That is the offensive output of Hamhuis from last year.

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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby mookie1010 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:34 am

ToddM wrote:You're confusing ability with results. Hanzal can be skating at 2 mph with no hands (ability) and come in and have a puck bounce in off his ass in his second game (results), while Tyler Seguin can launch 11 shots on net and hit two crossbars (ability) and get zero goals (results). Doesn't mean Hanzal is better than Seguin, even for that one game. The results just weren't there for Seguin, despite playing at a really high level.

Representative sample sizes solve for the problem you describe, which is why your example isn't illuminating anything.
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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:57 am

ToddM wrote:I've had some misses over the years but overall I think my talent eval skillz are solid. I was on record on saying Benn would be fantastic after his Memorial Cup run, on the record a bunch of times saying we should take Seguin off Boston's hands because he was extremely unlucky, underused on their third line, and bound to be totally amazing. I was eventually right about Campbell, who is pretty clearly NOW better than Fowler, but you'd never know that if you just trusted the coaches (or 4000+ posts on this board). I was right about Klingberg going to be amazing. I told you mofos Nemeth would be a solid defensive defensemen if he had a shot. I told you mofos that Reilly Smith was great in college, and the only reason he didn't score for *poo poo* in his rookie year here was because he was hopelessly unlucky and underused. I also pounded away at wanting to draft Barzal, and got the heebie-jeebies when he miraculously dropped into our lap.

My talent evaluation skills are also sharp, but my ability is in spotting guys who aren't going to be anything special. Despite efforts by the Stars to convince fans of the awesome abilities of every young player they call up, I like to take pride in being very quick to realize how little many of these guys have when it comes to meaningful NHL talent. I pat myself on the back for quickly identifying how guys like Vincour, Botterill, Larsen, Elie, Oleksiak, and Nichushkin don't have what it takes to be good NHL players.

But I certainly got some wrong the other way when I was sure Sim and Jackman were sure fire studs. Hell, I even remember seeing Vishnevskiy in an AHL game where he was the best player on the ice and was toying with the other team and thought he would certainly be awesome in the NHL, but I'm starting to now wonder how much we are going to view Honka as the new Vishnevskiy when the dust settles on things.

And Nemeth only lost his shot here because he was pushed out to make room for Oleksiak and Honka. In retrospect, maybe it would have been a better idea for Nill to have kept Nemeth over those two, but Nill was trying to give jobs to guys who theoretically have higher ceilings, even though we can now see none of them are guys who have the goods to really light up the league.

When it comes to Campbell, Fowler was still a better pick. Fowler was making NHL contributions from the season he was drafted until today. Campbell needed 8 years to finally get the mental side of his game in order. Good for him and all, but what that means is during all of the years of their restricted free agency, Fowler gave the Ducks seven or eight seasons of NHL play while Campbell gave the Stars nothing. You don't want to spend a first round pick on a guy who only gives two or three good seasons of play before he hits UFA.

This concept of course speaks to my biggest gripe about Nill's first round picks who all seem to constantly be on the "be patient" schedule because none of them are contributing much today. Even if they do eventually turn out to be good, the Stars are going to get fewer cheap ELC/RFA years of production out of them than is preferred from younger players who figure it out sooner.

ToddM wrote:Meanwhile, every single Dallas coach that started shit-ass vets over promising young talent is now gone, after being mediocre or worse.

This is a pretty overstated complaint. From the time Nill got here, the Stars have given lots of ice time to lots of kids. Off the top of my head: Nichushkin, Klingberg, Janmark, Johns, Shore, Faksa, Lindell, Heiskanen. I'm probably missing a couple, but there's a bunch of young players who were pretty much inserted into the lineup to play good minutes every night. Vets didn't get in their way. They were all rookies at one point who were handed jobs over veterans.

ToddM wrote:And you guys dump on the *only* young players who actually try carrying the puck into the zone (Val and Honka). Because sometimes they make mistakes trying to be creative with the puck? Do you also enjoy watching paint dry? Kevin James sitcoms? Jags-Titans on Thursday Night Football? I'll take Val blowing past three guys on the way to the net and at least trying to get a shot off (elevate!) than Blake "Oops! Better loop around a bit, wouldn't want to accidentally score!" Comeau and his 5th-on-the-Stars-in-ice-time snoozefest. Sheesh.

Those guys are dumped on because their efforts don't result in goals. I don't think anyone is happy about the Comeau signing or utilization, but I'm also not happy that first round picks were wasted on Nichushkin and Honka who have a combined zero goals on the season. Zero! Two good draft picks taken on guys specifically for their offensive abilities, and neither one does jack *poo poo* to generate offense.

ToddM wrote:Teams that play it safe and sit on leads pretty much always drift into irrelevance over time. We've had a front-row seat to that for like 14 seasons. But it can't be the coaches or their cowardly systems and lineup decisions... nope, gotta be the players who mysteriously go to other teams and magically become just like the guys they were supposed to be when they were drafted! It's truly a mystery how that continues to happen honkasux lol 420/69 amirite?

Or maybe... just maybe... no system will make some of these guys into something greater than what they are. Nichushkin played on a couple of Ruff's wild ass open offensive systems, and that never did anything for his numbers even when the other guys on the roster were all having career years. Honka also played for wild ass Ruff during his rookie run, and he sadly still put up pedestrian numbers.
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All of this is to say I don't disagree with you entirely. Not at all. I only disagree with you about certain players because I think you treat those selected players as a representation of the team as a whole because you're ignoring the other young players who don't fit into the excuses you hand to those certain players.
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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby ToddM » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:10 pm

When Val and Honka start putting up decent numbers for the Caps or Pens, you owe me a beer. And not any of that IPA *poo poo*.

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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:20 pm

Nichushkin couldn't even put up decent numbers playing in the KHL. He sucks. I'll instead buy you a beer to give you something to provide the joy Nichushkin keeps stealing from you. Even Job would have given up his faith in Nichushkin by now.
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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby SaintAngerBH » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:22 pm

Honka might have a shot in a different environment. Val has already proven he sucks in Russia. He is what he is.
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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:30 pm

Was curious to see how many young guys the Stars were rolling out there this game, so here you go.



1st line: vet - 4th yr player - vet
2nd line: 3rd yr player - vet - vet
3rd line: vet - 3rd yr player - vet
4th line: rookie - rookie- vet
scratch: Nichushkin (3rd full season)

1st pair: 3rd yr player - vet
2nd pair: rookie - vet
3rd pair: vet - vet
scratches: Honka (3rd full season), Carrick (vet)

IR: Hanzal (vet), Methot (vet), Pitlick (vet), Johns (would have been his 3rd full season)

Almost 40% of the lineup are guys who haven't even played four NHL seasons. If Johns was healthy and if Nichushkin didn't suck, the number would be closer to 50%.
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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby wonko80 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 2:48 pm

Yeah, but all those young players aren't getting 25 minutes a night, so they aren't getting a real shot.

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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby ToddM » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:15 pm

wonko80 wrote:Yeah, but all those young players aren't getting 25 minutes a night, so they aren't getting a real shot.


Exactly. Wonko gets it.

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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby ScubaSteve » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:26 pm

Mark has those lines out of order.
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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:28 pm

ScubaSteve wrote:Mark has those lines out of order.

They don't really matter. They aren't even going to stay the same for very long. I was more using them for the sake of looking at just how many younger players are up and down this lineup.
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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby cdanew » Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:38 pm

Troy McClure wrote:
ScubaSteve wrote:Mark has those lines out of order.

They don't really matter. They aren't even going to stay the same for very long. I was more using them for the sake of looking at just how many younger players are up and down this lineup.


Kind of curious what some other teams' lineups would look like if you did the same analysis (like Colorado and Minnesota, for example)

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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:03 pm

It was pretty easy to do. Thanks hockey-reference. I didn't try to account for IR because that would be too much work.

Colorado - more vet heavy than you might think, but a big difference to consider is they have several forwards who entered the league very young. A guy like MacKinnon is in his sixth season, but he's still only 23. It changes the balance of things when their young guys are better sooner than our young guys. Based on their lineup from their last game:

vet - vet - 3rd year
vet - vet - 3rd year
vet - 2nd year - vet
vet - rookie - vet

vet - 2nd year
vet - vet
rookie - vet

Minnesota - The most vet heavy of all three teams I've looked at.

rookie - vet - vet
vet - vet - vet
vet - vet - 2nd year
vet - 2nd year - rookie

vet - vet
vet - vet
rookie - vet
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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby ToddM » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:42 pm

Colorado's young guys were drafted first overall. They'd better be better than our young guys.

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Re: Stars trade Oleksiak. Correction... trade for Oleksiak.

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:04 pm

Of course, they should be better, but the drop off from first overall to 10th or 11th shouldn’t be a drop from 20 goals to zero.
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