2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

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slaps
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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby slaps » Thu May 09, 2019 1:20 pm

ToddM wrote:I"m not so big on Tyler Myers. The Jets don't seem to want him anymore, and they've got huge issues at D.

I'd like Zucs... I was totally wrong about him... but after his playoff run, about 5 teams will be throwing suitcases full of cash his way. I bet he ends up making Radulov money, and he's really not as good as Rads.

I'd also be open to seriously looking to trade Benn. A lot of old-school GMs would love to have him. We'd take a short term hit, but we're already a pretty bad team (with an A++ goalie), so it'd be fine depending on what we got back.


Benn isn't going anywhere unless the team makes life miserable for him to the point where he demands out.

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Thu May 09, 2019 1:22 pm

ToddM wrote:I"m not so big on Tyler Myers. The Jets don't seem to want him anymore, and they've got huge issues at D.

I'd like Zucs... I was totally wrong about him... but after his playoff run, about 5 teams will be throwing suitcases full of cash his way. I bet he ends up making Radulov money, and he's really not as good as Rads.

I'd also be open to seriously looking to trade Benn. A lot of old-school GMs would love to have him. We'd take a short term hit, but we're already a pretty bad team (with an A++ goalie), so it'd be fine depending on what we got back.

Zuccarello is great, but you know ("ZIGBY") his career high is something like 61 points. ZIGBY he was on pace for just over 70 points this year, but it was a contract year. ZIGBY he's not exactly super fast and sometimes does have his size see him lose battles others would win. ZIGBY he's also going to be 32 going into next season, so throwing a five year deal at him carries risks. ZIGBY if his contract number gets to the $8 million number, we very well could end up looking at 14 goals and 58 points from him next season as a huge letdown.

On the other hand (reverse ZIGBY?), it would *fargin'* suck beyond belief to let him walk because of all of these concerns to go chase younger free agents instead and to miss out on them. To pass on Zuccarello and see the next few preferred options go somewhere else would be far worse than whatever downside might come from a Zuccarello contract.

As for Benn, are there really all that many old school GMs left in the game? I doubt he has any trade value.
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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby cdanew » Thu May 09, 2019 1:23 pm

slaps wrote:Benn isn't going anywhere unless the team makes life miserable for him to the point where he demands out.


Maybe they'll start by calling him *fargin'* horseshit in several expletive laden rants to the media. Oh wait .... :lol: :lol:

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby cdanew » Thu May 09, 2019 1:23 pm

Don't know that you'd expect him to say anything else, but at least he didn't crap all over the experience!

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby SaintAngerBH » Thu May 09, 2019 1:51 pm

There is already a possibility Benn wants out anyway. Who really knows what's going on in his mind?

The rumor I have heard is that Brad Alberts flat out said the Stars should have traded him years ago and that his Art Ross single-handedly screwed the team for years.

It isn't he Art Ross. It was the contract and the lack of a trade. This isn't Benn's fault. It's Nill's. Nill should be fired.
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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby SaintAngerBH » Thu May 09, 2019 1:57 pm



Hintz is a warrior.
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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby slaps » Thu May 09, 2019 2:23 pm

Troy McClure wrote:
ToddM wrote:I"m not so big on Tyler Myers. The Jets don't seem to want him anymore, and they've got huge issues at D.

I'd like Zucs... I was totally wrong about him... but after his playoff run, about 5 teams will be throwing suitcases full of cash his way. I bet he ends up making Radulov money, and he's really not as good as Rads.

I'd also be open to seriously looking to trade Benn. A lot of old-school GMs would love to have him. We'd take a short term hit, but we're already a pretty bad team (with an A++ goalie), so it'd be fine depending on what we got back.

Zuccarello is great, but you know ("ZIGBY") his career high is something like 61 points. ZIGBY he was on pace for just over 70 points this year, but it was a contract year. ZIGBY he's not exactly super fast and sometimes does have his size see him lose battles others would win. ZIGBY he's also going to be 32 going into next season, so throwing a five year deal at him carries risks. ZIGBY if his contract number gets to the $8 million number, we very well could end up looking at 14 goals and 58 points from him next season as a huge letdown.

On the other hand (reverse ZIGBY?), it would *fargin'* suck beyond belief to let him walk because of all of these concerns to go chase younger free agents instead and to miss out on them. To pass on Zuccarello and see the next few preferred options go somewhere else would be far worse than whatever downside might come from a Zuccarello contract.

As for Benn, are there really all that many old school GMs left in the game? I doubt he has any trade value.



I don't think you can give Zuccarello more term or more money than Radulov. He just doesn't deserve it. That said, if he'll do 4-5 years at $6MM - $6.5MM per, I think you take that deal, especially if its not bonus-heavy or with full no-move. Or maybe you give him the no-move to get a shorter term.

I don't want to see the team overcommit, but at the same time, we know for a fact he fits with this team. What if you spend $10MM+ on Panarin and he doesn't click?

Also, hockey players tend to be averse to moving around a lot. What if Zuccarello goes somewhere and he doesn't fit, or they tank? As much as we *poo poo* on the team (generally rightfully so), we aren't Ottawa or Edmonton levels of absolute suckitude.

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Thu May 09, 2019 2:30 pm

I don't think you can put an artificial limit on a guy based on a contract signed by another UFA two years ago when the cap is now going to be $8 million more than when Radulov signed his deal.
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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby FrozenFailure » Thu May 09, 2019 4:03 pm

Benn for Malkin. Let's do it Nill.

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby slaps » Thu May 09, 2019 8:37 pm


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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Thu May 09, 2019 9:03 pm

I know you guys Trust The Process over numbers and on-ice results, but the latest DGB put together their All-Shame team for the playoffs, and mentioned that Niskanen (the fact that Matt *fargin'* Niskanen is 32 makes me feel 72) was the worst d-man in the playoffs.

Impossible! Preposterous!! I thought. How can this be, when Roman Polak and Ben Lovejoy were getting eaten alive every other shift? So I looked it up on Corsica, and....



Polak was only the second worst d-man in terms of possession. More interestingly, and this is the drum I was banging for 95 games, is that Polak was hardly ever on the ice for an actual goal against, but should have been on the ice for a one goal every six minutes of playing time (that's the xGA category of 9.52. 10 goals against per 60!!!). Lovejoy was just behind him in Total Suckage/60, meaning that for 35 minutes a game, every game, Bishop was literally the only thing keeping us from getting swept via NHL-leading defensive incompetence. 35 minutes of Polak/Lovejoy = 5 goals against per game. Just on their shifts.

Naturally, I now expect Nill to re-up both for $3 million per. Because Grit Blocked Shots Good In The Room.

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby cdanew » Thu May 09, 2019 9:18 pm

Yeah, he also had pieces of sh*t players like Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, Evgeny Kuznetzov, Nikita Kucherov, Johnny Gaudreau, Ryan Dzingel, and Andrei Vasilevskiy on that same list. Clearly no one would ever want those guys on their teams. :roll: :roll:

Listen, I understand you are never going to give up on this :DeadHorse:. No one is saying Polak is ever going to be a Norris candidate. He is what he is. But for what he is, he did a damn good job being played in a spot above his pay grade.

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Thu May 09, 2019 9:27 pm

When faced with a 95 game sample size, you’re still going to ignore the actual stats and will instead lean on the expected stats? Ok. Have fun with that.

At this point shitting on them for getting the job done when there weren’t really better options isn’t providing very helpful criticism. My guess is both are gone this offseason. That’s fine.

Nill went into this season expecting Johns and Methot to play every game, but it didn’t work out. Instead, the next man up syndrome pushed a lesser player like Polak into bigger minutes. And you shat on him all season despite there not being any other option. And the stats you cite show the puck didn’t go in the net when he played. He played well above his pay grade and expected role. Just thank him for doing his best and move on. There will be new bodies next season.
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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby ScubaSteve » Thu May 09, 2019 9:48 pm

Honka was also supposed to pan out this year. That’s half of your planned top 6 that you had to replace on the fly. Polak really did okay for what he was asked to do.
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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Thu May 09, 2019 10:02 pm

ScubaSteve wrote:Honka was also supposed to pan out this year. That’s half of your planned top 6 that you had to replace on the fly. Polak really did okay for what he was asked to do.

And Heiskanen was a *fargin'* miracle. Imagine if he was a shaky rookie who needed to be protected with easy, limited minutes (the Honka role). Nill would have been making some desperation trade mid November for a second pair defender, and we would have hated it because no team trades a guy they like in November.
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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Thu May 09, 2019 10:20 pm

Heiskanen dragged Polak up and down the ice for most of those 95 games, too. Imagine how good he could be with a d-man who was not bottom-five in the NHL.

You guys sound like robots when it comes to Polak. I could cut-and-paste your posts. "Fine" "Above his pay grade" "pushed up the lineup" etc etc. And then you *poo poo* on players like Seguin, Benn, etc etc who scored less than they should have against the Blues. Well, how much scoring do you guys expect from Seguin when he's trapped in his own zone for an entire 45 second shift because Polak and/or Lovejoy can't clear the zone even when given the puck on their forehand? "Benn looked tired" No *poo poo*! You would be too if you were spending 90% of your ice time making up for the single most incompetent d-man in the NHL.

You all know what I think of Honka, but I'd say you'd have gotten better results from literally any d-man in the entire NHL over Polak. Which is why Maple Leaf fans were ecstatic when he left Toronto (where he also "played above his pay grade" "earned his spot in the lineup" etc etc). I'd rather have Adam Pardy out there over Polak. Because not only would Pardy give up fewer grade-A chances, but he wouldn't drag down his 19 year old wunderkind phenom partner all season, wouldn't have the top offensive talents on the team backchecking behind the net trying to cover for his per-shift turnovers and dumbass puck moving decisions.

"Fine" is B.S. And that reflects really badly on Monty as a coach, because he's in charge of personnel decisions. Just look at his awesome decision to start Brett Ritchie in Game 7 over literally anybody else. Gurianov? Val? Pitlick? L'Esperance? All would've been a better pick. You know how I know? Because Ritchie played all of 7 minutes in a double-OT game. So did Spezza, by the way. The same Spezza who actually created offense early in the series. In a game when we needed a goal, Spezza played all of 8 minutes out of 85. So yeah, Benn and Seguin and Radulov were tired. That's shit-ass coaching in a nutshell.

Maybe Monty learns from his many, many, many mistakes in his rookie season, and like any rookie player, corrects his bad habits and straightens out his flaws. I've got my doubts. More likely, he and Nill see how far they got in the playoffs, and think "Hey... we belong here!!" and stay the course, making changes at the margin. And we waste yet another year of Benn/Segs/Rad/Kling/Lindell's prime, and probably the last year of Bishop's Vezina period.

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby BigAl » Thu May 09, 2019 10:35 pm

I thought Polak was fine. He definitely played above his pay grade.
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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Thu May 09, 2019 10:38 pm

Playing Spezza more would have been an awful decision. Spezza had a dogshit game seven. His line was the worst of the four of getting trapped in their own end. I know you’ll say it’s entirely because of Ritchie, but Spezza was bad. Playing him more only would have worked to end the game sooner.

This wasted season isn’t on Monty. It’s on the roster built by his GM where a massive amount of cap space was tied up in two injury prone guys who pretty much didn’t play in Hanzal and Methot as well as giving out maybe the worst contract in Stars history when he played Nichushkin to have an all time franchise worst season.

You know what, look at the D Monty was handed to start the season:
Methot - only lasted 9 games
Johns - couldn’t play at all
Carrick - sucks
Honka - sucks
Polak - signed to be the #7 D
Heiskanen - rookie
Klingberg - great
Lindell - great

A month into the season, Monty was staring at a d corps with only two sure fire NHLers and a rookie playing awesome. And also Klingberg got hurt early on. Yeah, he ended up moving Polak up the lineup... because he had no one else. Look at that roster and find me the multiple players able to push Polak out of the lineup.
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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby slaps » Thu May 09, 2019 10:41 pm

I like how Todd is the only one really shitting on the fact that we went to a double OT Game 7 in the second round.

If that's the best we do for the next 5 years, then Todd will look brilliant. But right now, it looks to me like Monty did what he could with the cards he was dealt. He wasn't perfect, but he was not bad for a rookie coach. If he's still doing the same mistakes in 3 years, then sure, let the *poo poo* rain down on him. But for right now, he did a pretty damn good job for a guy who had largely a one-line team for 91% of the season. Sure, Spezza had expectedgoalsforlessthanagainstXy/75345% for whatever that's worth, but in terms of actual production, he did *f-bomb* all and was oftentimes more a liability than anything when he was on the ice.

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Thu May 09, 2019 11:53 pm

I enjoyed our playoff run immensely, but I'm not going to get roped into where we finished and think that because we made it to the second round and Tampa Bay didn't, that we're somehow even in the same league as them. We only got as far as we did because we have the best goalie in the NHL, full stop. Our coach spent 5 games doing what he said he would do when he was hired, and 90 more trying to fit a bunch of square pegs into round holes, a.k.a. forcing them to play Hitchball 3.0, even if their talents are better suited elsewhere.

I don't envy his position -- most rookie coaches are put on really bad teams, so they're not under the "win now" pressure that Monty was under in what was going to be Nill's last season as GM. Otherwise he might've (maybe) actually gone with any one of our talented AHLers/rookies over demonstrably awful vets like Polak and Comeau. It's easy to forget after 13 playoff games, but four months ago this team wasn't making the playoffs, and then Hintz and Dickinson got into the top 6 and we started scoring.

Giving bad players big minutes is a sign of a crap coach. You know who would be better than Polak? Literally any warm body. Hanley is better at defense, allegedly Polak's one saving grace (even tho he's atrocious at it). Gleason is solid on D and brings spurts of offense from the point (Polak does not do those things). Bayreuther is an adventure on D but is a smooth skater with a great pass and shot (again, all better than Polak). Honka does things Polak can't even do on NHL 94 (yet somehow he "sucks" because of one or two turnovers a game at his own blueline. Polak's 8 turnovers a game is "fine"). Even Heatherington is a step up. Or you could pick some guy off waivers, because regardless of who that player is, he'll be a better defenseman than Polak.

Just replace "Roman Polak/Second Pair" with "Adam Burish/Top 6", and you'll see what I'm trying to get at. Literally no one on this board said these things:
"Adam Burish was fine."
"Adam Burish earned his spot in the Top 6."
"Who else was Gulutzan supposed to start on Ott's wing? We had literally nobody better than Adam Burish on this roster."
"I trust the guy who sees Adam Burish in practice every day."
"Advanced stats say that Adam Burish is not at all suited for a Top-6 role? Well then advanced stats must be wrong."

...and yet somehow Gulutzan got *poo poo* on at the time (and for a decade afterwards, until the heat death of the universe) for his crap coaching. Monty, tho, gets the benefit of the doubt. It's mind-bottling.

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby B Kat » Fri May 10, 2019 6:38 am

Polka was more than fine. In addition to his defensive prowess his personality also helped the team. I’m serious Todd. Not about the polka part, that was my iPad.

I do agree that Monty played the top players too much and that especially with their aggressive play, it was tiring. And of course playing Ritchie in game 7 was a mistake.

Nelson to Edmonton would make sense, since he has worked for Kenny Holland.

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby B Kat » Fri May 10, 2019 6:44 am

FrozenFailure wrote:Benn for Malkin. Let's do it Nill.

Both players have 9.5 mil cap hits. Malkin has just three years left to Jamie’s six. I did notice that the last five years of Jamie’s contract, the actual salary is just 1 million. That does allow some room for a trade.

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby slaps » Fri May 10, 2019 7:44 am

There's so much in Todd's post that I think is *fargin'* horseshit, but man, this is the one thing that stands out above all else:


ToddM wrote: Our coach spent 5 games doing what he said he would do when he was hired, and 90 more trying to fit a bunch of square pegs into round holes, a.k.a. forcing them to play Hitchball 3.0, even if their talents are better suited elsewhere.


How are their talents suited elsewhere? You can not like the style all you want, but we had one of the best records in the West after the All Star break. If anything, the style he adopted is perfectly suited to the lineup he had to work with. I'd prefer to play run and gun hockey with 5 or 7 goals a night, but it's hard to do that successfully unless you have a very deep lineup, and we don't. It's getting better, but we don't have the goal-scoring talent to play like that.

Sure, you can say that Montgomery is in charge of personnel decisions, but he's got to work within the box the GM made for him, and the Stars are not overflowing with high-end talent. You keep pointing to players like Dickinson and Hintz suddenly emerging as top-6 options only once the mean old coach finally gave them a chance, but that's not really how it went down. They had chances all year, and it took them a while to put it together. If anything, Montgomery deserves credit for sticking with it when they didn't look like they belonged.

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby wonko80 » Fri May 10, 2019 7:57 am

I think the fact that Monty himself said multiple times that he had to change the style of play of the team from what he wanted speaks volumes to the level of talent that we have.

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Fri May 10, 2019 8:07 am

Hintz didn't suddenly become good as a result of getting top six minutes. He got consistent top six minutes because he started playing much better later in the season. He earned those minutes and deserves a ton of credit for being a completely different player on game 82 than he was in game one. Who knows how much the team's coaching helped as well, but it's strange to try to call Monty a shitty coach while also acknowledging the players who got better as the season went along.

I also feel like it discounts the efforts of the players themselves who work hard and improve their games by treating them like all you need to do is give them minutes and they'll be good. Like they are houseplants who only need sun and water to blossom. It's pretty insulting to the guys who do step up, seize their opportunities, and perform to make it seem formulaic. We have Hintz who started the season getting knocked around and failing to do much with his speed evolve into a bulldog with the puck who figured out being a puck hog results in goals because he's faster than everyone else with the puck on his stick. That's awesome. That's what we should want in young players. '

I'd much rather have guys with drive to improve their games like Hintz, Dickinson, and Heiskanen over mental midgets like Nichushkin and Honka who sit around adding to their list of excuses why nothing they do results in goals being scored.
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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby wonko80 » Fri May 10, 2019 8:09 am

I'm also not sure I understand "Expected" stats. How are they derived compared to the actual stats and why would there be a huge difference in them?

And if I go look at forwards for the playoffs and use C +/- to sort them, it looks like Kusnetsov is the 5th worst forward in that stat (who would want that piece of *poo poo* player on their team) followed closely by Faksa as 7th worst and Dickinson at 11th worst. Does that mean we should jettison Faksa and Dickinson now? *poo poo*, Zuccarello is 23rd worst after what many are considering to be a great playoff performance.

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Fri May 10, 2019 8:27 am

Expected goals for kind of stats try to look at the quality of shots taken to say a guy shooting a kind of shot from a spot on the ice should score some percentage of the time. The belief is that if you have a guy with a really high expected goals for then it means he's getting a lot of shots off from a productive area, which means you can expect him to score goals or not depending on these numbers.

Obviously, there are limitations with these kind of stats. If you have a dude with a high expected goals for but very small actual goals for, is it just bad luck or a slump? Do you assume he's going to pull out of it? Or are there limitations to his game like having a very weak shot?

A guy like Zuccarello is an interesting example. He didn't have a lot of shots on goal in the playoffs, but he scored on a high percentage of his shots. Expected stats don't like that, but then you're left asking whether his super high shooting percentage would be sustainable over two more playoff rounds. Maybe. Maybe not.
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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Fri May 10, 2019 9:44 am

Expected goals are basically how many shots and from where. A guy who loads up and rifles one from the blue line every chance he gets is taking a lot of shots, but they're really low danger, so his expected goals will be low despite the large # of shots. But a guy who skates into the center of the slot and consistently takes shots from below the circles will be really high on that stat.

The converse, which is more relevant to d-man, is true: a defenseman who consistently keeps stuff to the perimeter will have a low XGA, while one who gives up shots 5 feet from his goalie will be much higher.

Naturally, XGA doesn't equal actual goals, because hockey is weird. A really good goaltender can negate a realy high XGA, as Bishop did in the second half of the season and 13 playoff games. A really bad goalkari will do the opposite. Plus you never know what kind of shot is being taken via those stats (a.k.a. a weak backhand into a gaping net in OT).

And there's just straight puck luck. We got Seguin because in his last playoff series he went 1-for-70 for the Bruins. 70 shots on goal is phenomenal, just one behind the team leader. But his moronic old school bosses only wanted to see the 1 goal, and collectively decided that He Didn't Want it Enough or something. Meanwhile Hanzal can have a shot bank in off his ass in his second game back, despite his inability to skate or do much of anything.

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby B Kat » Fri May 10, 2019 9:54 am

The defensive style Monty ended up adopting helped the forward push. Yeah, we got Zuccarello too, (for two whole regular season games), but the rest of the team was the same and that defensive style produced more secondary scoring. Voila.

Also, Hintz was a stud muffin 2 seasons ago. When I saw him in TC prior to the 17-18 season I thought he was NHL ready. He wasn't, but it was clear he was a man among boys.

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Re: 2019 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby slaps » Fri May 10, 2019 9:57 am

ToddM wrote:A guy who loads up and rifles one from the blue line every chance he gets is taking a lot of shots, but they're really low danger, so his expected goals will be low despite the large # of shots.


Unless its Colton Parayko.

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