2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby mookie1010 » Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:18 pm

Wild Card, baby.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:22 pm

If we can sneak into the 5th wild card spot and play whatever schlub emerges from the Pacific tardpile, I'd be pretty stoked.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:54 pm

The Frugal Gourmet wrote:When healthy though, I'm starting to like our defense.

Anyone else feel that -- despite second line issues -- with the Stars talent they should actually be doing better than they are?

When you consider they have the record they do despite getting essentially nothing out of Benn, Seguin, and Radulov for the past three weeks, yeah, I think they should be doing better. It actually speaks well for the lineup as a whole that they're holding down a wild card spot with the top line going cold, the entire defense being injured, and still having a few forwards who contribute no offense.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:35 am

A deep dive into Honka's weird season:

https://mooterati.com/2018/11/20/julius ... las-stars/

Really, Honka is doing well in limited minutes, but against the easiest competition in the easiest zone starts but with the crappiest linemates. He actually scores at a higher clip per 60 mins than any Stars d-man, including Klingberg. But!-- he also is prone to passive defensive play in his own end and costly turnovers, and he hasn't been that great (other than scoring, again) since Klingmann went down.

Overall, tho, more good than bad. Which is a pretty nice piece to have as a third-pairing d-man (when JK gets back).

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby wonko80 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:41 am

Honka is a perfect example of eyeball test vs stats. Eyeball test wise, he's looked fairly spare. And apparently he can't beat out career AHLers or guys with zero NHL experience for ice time.

Once others are healthy, I'd rather play Bayreuther or Gleason in Honka's place. They have way more upside (you know, what Honka used to have).

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:42 am

All that also looks like a guy ready to be scratched when other defenders get healthy, especially on road games where it is harder to manage your weakest link's matchups.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ScubaSteve » Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:44 am

Advanced stats don’t work on an absurdly small sample size. If Honka puts up one point playing six minutes a game, the fancy stats say he’s better than Klingberg. This is just like when Todd tried to tell us that Fistric was elite because he led the league in Corsi/60 or some *poo poo*.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:45 am

wonko80 wrote:Honka is a perfect example of eyeball test vs stats. Eyeball test wise, he's looked fairly spare. And apparently he can't beat out career AHLers or guys with zero NHL experience for ice time.

This also isn't the first time we've seen a bad player's fancy stats get inflated by a coach carefully working to shelter him.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:01 pm

ScubaSteve wrote:Advanced stats don’t work on an absurdly small sample size. If Honka puts up one point playing six minutes a game, the fancy stats say he’s better than Klingberg. This is just like when Todd tried to tell us that Fistric was elite because he led the league in Corsi/60 or some *poo poo*.


Fistric was never 'elite' but nobody --from either team-- scored when he was on the ice. That's not a bad skill set for a third-pairing shutdown guy, especially when you're playing with the lead in the third period (where the Stars went almost Fistric's entire Stars career without a loss after leading in the third). Note that as soon as Fistric left, Dallas coudln't hold a third-period lead *for *poo poo**.

Same with Honka. He's not going to put up 60 points like Karlsson or Klingberg, so why keep judging him by that standard? There's only so many PP minutes to go around to inflate your point totals, which is why it's basically almost unheard of for one team to have two high-scoring defensemen. But Honka does a lot of things right in very limited minutes, which is pretty valuable. Especially coming off a season where we had Klingberg and five guys who couldn't skate or pass out of their zone.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:05 pm

ToddM wrote:
ScubaSteve wrote:Advanced stats don’t work on an absurdly small sample size. If Honka puts up one point playing six minutes a game, the fancy stats say he’s better than Klingberg. This is just like when Todd tried to tell us that Fistric was elite because he led the league in Corsi/60 or some *poo poo*.


Fistric was never 'elite' but nobody --from either team-- scored when he was on the ice. That's not a bad skill set for a third-pairing shutdown guy, especially when you're playing with the lead in the third period (where the Stars went almost Fistric's entire Stars career without a loss after leading in the third). Note that as soon as Fistric left, Dallas coudln't hold a third-period lead *for *poo poo**.

Considering Fistric was never on the ice in those late game situations against the opponent's best players, I don't see what him leaving had to do with how the team performed late in games.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:06 pm

Troy McClure wrote:
wonko80 wrote:Honka is a perfect example of eyeball test vs stats. Eyeball test wise, he's looked fairly spare. And apparently he can't beat out career AHLers or guys with zero NHL experience for ice time.

This also isn't the first time we've seen a bad player's fancy stats get inflated by a coach carefully working to shelter him.


The only more sheltered d-man in the NHL than Erik Karlsson is Brent Burns.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby B Kat » Wed Nov 21, 2018 12:11 pm

Julie is doing alright. He is being allowed to play this season, for the most part. He's gonna make mistakes, tho he hasn't made too many costly mistakes so far. He just needs to concentrate on getting the puck up the ice, quickly and efficiently and I think he's getting better at that.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Nov 21, 2018 1:00 pm

ToddM wrote:
Troy McClure wrote:
wonko80 wrote:Honka is a perfect example of eyeball test vs stats. Eyeball test wise, he's looked fairly spare. And apparently he can't beat out career AHLers or guys with zero NHL experience for ice time.

This also isn't the first time we've seen a bad player's fancy stats get inflated by a coach carefully working to shelter him.


The only more sheltered d-man in the NHL than Erik Karlsson is Brent Burns.

Uh huh
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby wonko80 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 1:18 pm

Troy McClure wrote:
ToddM wrote:
Troy McClure wrote:
wonko80 wrote:Honka is a perfect example of eyeball test vs stats. Eyeball test wise, he's looked fairly spare. And apparently he can't beat out career AHLers or guys with zero NHL experience for ice time.

This also isn't the first time we've seen a bad player's fancy stats get inflated by a coach carefully working to shelter him.


The only more sheltered d-man in the NHL than Erik Karlsson is Brent Burns.

Uh huh

It'd be totally easy to shelter a guy playing 25+ minutes a night.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Wed Nov 21, 2018 1:39 pm

Oh, wait, I set up the filters wrong. Burns is 4th highest (64%), EK is 8th (60%):

https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-i ... mes_played

Oliver Ekman-Larsson is tops, at 67%. Which, when you figure in icings and *poo poo* like that, means that he basically never starts anywhere his own net.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Nov 21, 2018 1:53 pm

An offensive zone start doesn't mean a coach is sheltering you. It often means a coach sees you as a guy who can drive some offense. The Sharks are putting Burns and Karlsson out there on offensive zone draws because they want their best offensive weapons on that end of the ice with the puck.

Personally, I think the zone start stats are total garbage. They don't account for line changes that happen during play or neutral zone faceoffs. So what percentage of the game are we really talking about when you've peeled the onion down to only looking at the faceoffs taking place near either goalie?
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Wed Nov 21, 2018 3:29 pm

Well, line changes and neutral zone faceoffs are probably both in the neutral zone, so... they don't tell you much, if anything. Just that a guy got on the ice at some point. But o-and d- zone starts tell you what a coach thinks about a player, since they have total control over that.

O-zone/D-zone starts can be pretty telling. For example, Klingberg does NOT get a lot of o-zone starts (44%!), because his coaches trust his ability to get the puck out of the defensive zone. Generally guys like Lindell (41%), Polak (36%), and Faksa (29%, lowest on the team) start almost all of their shifts in the defensive end. This also goes with a lot of younger guys, like Dickinson (35%), Ritchie (31%), and Gemel Smith (29%).

The regulars with the highest percentage of o-zone starts are guys like Spezza, Honka, Radulov, and Benn. Basically their usage confirms what we can see from the eyeball test: they're excellent offensive options, but a liability in their own end.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby wonko80 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 3:35 pm

I'd argue that Klingberg doesn't get them because he tends to spend a lot of his shift already in the offensive zone, so then he's tired when it comes time for a faceoff. So then the coach has to go to the 2nd or 3rd d pairs and they would then get inflated offensive zone stars. Then stats people would say "the coach loves them in the offensive zone" even though the coach didn't really have his top option available to him.

Similarly, if a defenseman is on the ice a lot (Karlsson), then he'll probably also end up facing top lines of other teams. Well those lines tend to be good, so they might still make that top defenseman stay in his zone for longer, to where they are tired when there's a whistle. Then good old 3rd pair d comes out. Suddenly it would appear the coach loves them in d-zone stars.

Basically this stat tells me nothing. Total ice time tells me a lot more for what a coach actually thinks of his players.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ScubaSteve » Wed Nov 21, 2018 4:39 pm

I prefer ice time per 60 divided by the square root of the number of icings.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby #JTONTFJTGM » Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:41 pm



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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ScubaSteve » Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:17 pm

Honka shares are trading lower than Moviepass.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:21 pm

Flew by Defending Big D and those folks are acting like scratching Honka is worse than genocide. Honka hasn’t done *poo poo*.... pretty much ever other than one OT shift.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby SaintAngerBH » Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:31 pm

The majority of Stars fans are morons.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby slaps » Sat Nov 24, 2018 12:14 am

OK, at this point, I’m ready to anoint Heiskanen as the next Lidstrom.

Kidding aside, he really reminds me of prime Duncan Keith. Fluid, insanely effortless skating, and going to be a monster at both ends of the rink. Watching him play is just pure hockey joy.

Maybe the Stars should quit focusing on size when they draft and focus on hockey smarts. The ability to think the game on Heiskanen’s part is amazing.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby 5minmajor » Sat Nov 24, 2018 1:23 am

slaps wrote:Maybe the Stars should quit focusing on size when they draft and focus on hockey smarts.

Like when they drafted Honka?
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby slaps » Sat Nov 24, 2018 9:26 am

5minmajor wrote:
slaps wrote:Maybe the Stars should quit focusing on size when they draft and focus on hockey smarts.

Like when they drafted Honka?


In all fairness to Honka, he might have had something at one time had the Stars’ shitty “development” program not yo-yo’ed him around for years.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby One_Timer » Sat Nov 24, 2018 1:32 pm

Honka sucks at hockey. Meanwhile Heiskanen was the best player on the ice. They hit the jackpot with that kid.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Knives Out » Wed Nov 28, 2018 2:14 am

Willie Desjardins has had Kovalchuk on the 4th line playing pitiful minutes since he took over, even though he was the Kings’ leading point getter at the time (Kopitar overtook him tonight after Ilya played only 9 minutes).

I sincerely doubt he’s been happy so far playing for the worst team in the league, and now this. Prolly not how he expected his comeback to go LOL. If I’m Jim Nill I’m *fargin'* calling Rob Blake tonight. Have him play LW with Tyler and Rads. Let Jamie rot on the second line, which is actually a 4th line.
That Hanzal's so hurt right now.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby slaps » Wed Nov 28, 2018 8:39 am

Small matter of affording $6MM in salary.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby B Kat » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:49 am

Pass.

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