2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

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Troy McClure
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Mar 27, 2019 9:35 am

ToddM wrote:No.

Tho Honka's advanced stats in the 6 games he's played since Jan 1st are easily the best on the team. But go ahead and trust Monty over hard data all you want, I'm sure it'll work out just fine.

There is nothing more out of whack in the hockey world than measuring advanced stats of low minute, often scratched #6/7/8 d-men.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby BigAl » Wed Mar 27, 2019 9:36 am

But the stats say Spezza should play on the top PP. Not Hintz.
So Spezza should play on the top PP instead of Hintz, right?
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby SaintAngerBH » Wed Mar 27, 2019 9:42 am

Dude, I often forget Spezza is even on this team. He's invisible 99 percent of the time.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby B Kat » Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:11 am

But scratching Spezza over Ritchie is perplexing. Even without the PP stat, he still takes face offs and wins (58+ %). His 27 points are not great, but only six other players have more.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:22 am

BigAl wrote:But the stats say Spezza should play on the top PP. Not Hintz.
So Spezza should play on the top PP instead of Hintz, right?

I can't even find these numbers. Seems like there are more defunct free NHL advanced stat sites than working ones.

And even a lot of the working free ones leave a lot to be desired. The worst one I saw was some fan-created stat where fans were watching games to track things like the frequency a player would dump a puck in versus carry it in, and this was done by the fan watching games and deciding which it was. They'd watch maybe ten games a guy played and would then published what their findings were. Other fans have eaten those things up as very meaningful descriptions of what makes a guy good or not. Player X carries the puck in 55% while player Y carries the puck in only 47%. This means Player X is much better, even though when it comes to things like goals/assists Player X has half the number of Player Y and the carry in stats were generated by some fan watching a handful of random games earlier in the season.

It looks like the better advanced stat sites are now subscription only.

In some ways, I think advances stats are great. They're causing people to look at players differently to try to find new ways to measure how a guy can help his team. But holy hell, they also have created a problem where people forget how to value contributions because any fan can find some one or two of these stats for a guy to latch onto to pump a guy up. Even if those carry in stats were 100% accurate and objective, when you put value on what players do, that's way down the damn list of what helps win games.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby slaps » Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:38 am

ToddM wrote:No, just that scratching Spezza in favor of Ritchie doesn't seem like the most optimal roster decision for a team having trouble scoring goals. Especially in 1-goal losses where the PP went silent.


How about scratching Spezza in favor of Dowling? Spezza doesn't bring much to the table, and he's not playing well enough in limited minutes to justify keeping him in, especially when he gives up goals based on horrible on-ice decisions.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:00 am

BigAl wrote:But the stats say Spezza should play on the top PP. Not Hintz.
So Spezza should play on the top PP instead of Hintz, right?


It's not really between those two on our top unit. I'd rather see Hintz, obviously, if only because he can actually skate and is fun to watch. But why keep one of our top setup guys off the second unit?

Spezza hasn't shown much outside of the PP these last three seasons, and even there he has trouble corralling the puck. Despite that, it still makes him a better offensive option than Ritchie, who... uhh... gets into fights sometimes? Takes a shot on net once every five games?

Last game we had four high draft picks whiff on empty nets. Heiskanen's shot was miraculously blocked by the stick of Schiefle, Val tried to squeeze it through four defenders, and I think Faksa's was also miraculously deflected both off a stick and the post. But Ritchie's whiff on Val's gorgeous setup? Isn't that supposed to be his thing? Shooting the puck?

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:10 am

slaps wrote:How about scratching Spezza in favor of Dowling? Spezza doesn't bring much to the table, and he's not playing well enough in limited minutes to justify keeping him in, especially when he gives up goals based on horrible on-ice decisions.


Like that awesome decision Comeau made that directly resulted in the first goal against?

My point is that these coaches seem to value Hard Work and Determination over actual ability and on-ice results. Basically they're valuing something everyone can do over stuff that only a select few are capable of. Is that good coaching? And they're wasting assets.

Take Dowling. Great AHL scorer, and we're kindof *fargin'* over Austin by promoting him to the big club (and by that, we're *fargin'* over ourselves because if Texas misses the playoffs, our young guys miss out on valuable XP), but then why give him crap minutes on the 4th line with no PP time? Wasn't he brought in to beef up scoring?

Your bottom-liners may not light up the world, but they're there to chip in and not *f-bomb* things up while they're out there. Also to give your most dangerous top-liners rest. And you KNOW that if we had not been up by 3-4 goals, that Radulov and Seguin would've logged 23-25 minutes. Again. Because that's a great long-term strategy that never results in exhausted or injured players.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby BigAl » Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:15 am

ToddM wrote:
BigAl wrote:But the stats say Spezza should play on the top PP. Not Hintz.
So Spezza should play on the top PP instead of Hintz, right?


It's not really between those two on our top unit. I'd rather see Hintz, obviously, if only because he can actually skate and is fun to watch. But why keep one of our top setup guys off the second unit?

Because the stat you quoted said The Best PP unit combination is those specific 5 guys. So if you want the best PP unit then you have to use exactly those 5 guys. Do you not want the Stars to use the league-wide #1 PP combination?
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby B Kat » Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:17 am

If the Stars start the game better, the chances are greater that they can play with the lead and not have to play their top players so much. Also makes the other team defend harder and tire out sooner. There is no better strategy than to get off to a great start. Something the Stars haven't done much. Good coaching should help that, right?

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby mookie1010 » Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:46 am

I've just assumed that Spezza's defensive liabilities (stuck in mud) out weighed his possible offensive contributions. What's Ritchie's WAR?
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby BigAl » Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:55 am

I realize I probably seem like a dick for harping on this point, but I actually like this stat.
Klingberg, Benn, Seguin, Radulov, and Spezza are the absolute top in the league in PP goals/60.

It goes against my gut feeling that Spezza sucks, but facts should be preferable to my personal feelings.

I just think it’s a little crazy to ignore the stat and do something else, like break up that unit and put Hintz in there instead because he looks good. The numbers favor Spezza over Hintz, else Hintz’s name would have appeared in the stat.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:03 pm

BigAl wrote:I realize I probably seem like a dick for harping on this point, but I actually like this stat.
Klingberg, Benn, Seguin, Radulov, and Spezza are the absolute top in the league in PP goals/60.

It goes against my gut feeling that Spezza sucks, but facts should be preferable to my personal feelings.

I just think it’s a little crazy to ignore the stat and do something else, like break up that unit and put Hintz in there instead because he looks good. The numbers favor Spezza over Hintz, else Hintz’s name would have appeared in the stat.

Is that true, or is there some minimum number of games/minutes filter that keeps Hintz off the list considering his promotion to PP1 is pretty recent? Given how the PP has struggled to score lately, I'm going to guess Hintz's numbers with the unit are worse than Spezza's were earlier in the season.

It's also worth considering that Monty is preparing for the return of Zuccarello. I'm going to guess Zuccarello gets put right on to the PP1 unit. Does that mean Hintz goes back to PP2 while Seguin goes to the point with Zuccarello filling wing? I guess we'll see. However it shakes out, I'm pretty sure adding Zuccarello means there is no spot for Spezza on the top PP unit. If true, then maybe that explains why there's no spot in the lineup at all for Spezza. Monty rides his top PP unit pretty hard. I don't know how it stacks up to the rest of the league, but Monty's second unit guys barely get out there. So we may have a situation where Monty doesn't view 30 seconds of quality second unit power play time as being enough to offset 8-10 minutes of even strength struggles.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby mookie1010 » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:07 pm

Troy McClure wrote:Monty doesn't view 30 seconds of quality second unit power play time as being enough to offset 8-10 minutes of even strength struggles.

This is what I was thinking as well. It's not like a situational pitcher taking up a roster spot for 2 outs in the 7th inning.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby wonko80 » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:30 pm

The PP issues would not be solved by Spezza playing on it. Even with him they're mostly a static bunch standing around passing it, which creates nothing. Hintz at least tries to move around.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:39 pm

That #1-with-Spezza PP stat might also be influenced by a small sample size, since --hard to remember, but it really did happen-- we scored at like a 50% clip for the first week or so of the season.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Knives Out » Wed Mar 27, 2019 5:38 pm

I remember those first four games. Before Monty threw his obsession with possession out the *fargin'* window and the scoring dried up.
I miss that week and a half.
That Hanzal's so hurt right now.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby SaintAngerBH » Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:14 pm

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Thu Mar 28, 2019 6:03 am

Bishop is day to day again. Someone should look up how long he's been out the last two times he was day to day. Seems like it was two weeks each time.

Bow has been called up.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:23 am

Had Hanzal or Johns or Methot been able to return, they'd have been nominated. Fedun is a nice story.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby slaps » Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:13 pm


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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby The Frugal Gourmet » Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:12 pm

I don’t think the advanced stats that site is tracking really matter.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:14 pm

The Frugal Gourmet wrote:I don’t think the advanced stats that site is tracking really matter.

Goals don't matter. I mean, they decide how games are won and lost, but let me show you these other stats that are far more important.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby The Frugal Gourmet » Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:18 pm

It’s not as important who wins as who deserves to have won.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Knives Out » Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:48 pm

Big ups to 2099 for finding this masterpiece:

That Hanzal's so hurt right now.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Knives Out » Sun Mar 31, 2019 1:45 am

We’re 1 goal behind the Islanders for the Jennings now.
That Hanzal's so hurt right now.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby cdanew » Sun Mar 31, 2019 9:32 am

Knives Out wrote:We’re 1 goal behind the Islanders for the Jennings now.


I think it is bs that the winning shootout goal counts in the Jennings race.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ScubaSteve » Sun Mar 31, 2019 9:45 am

cdanew wrote:
Knives Out wrote:We’re 1 goal behind the Islanders for the Jennings now.


I think it is bs that the winning shootout goal counts in the Jennings race.


I’m pretty sure it doesn’t.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby cdanew » Sun Mar 31, 2019 10:53 am

This was from Shapiro's article in The Athletic re last night's game:

18. While the playoffs are first on their mind, the Stars are in the race to win the William M. Jennings Trophy, which would be presented to both Bishop and Khudobin.

With three games remaining the Stars have allowed 194 goals while the New York Islanders have allowed 193. Both teams have three games remaining. It’s a fascinating sub-plot the Stars are involved in after being the model for porous defense and goaltending just two seasons ago.

For clarification, those goal totals include the shootout goal awarded at the end of a game. While those goals don’t count against goals-against average for goalies, they do count in this category when it comes to the Jennings.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ScubaSteve » Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:55 am

Oh. That’s dumb.
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