2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

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Troy McClure
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:56 am

ToddM wrote:Good read on how the Stars *f-bomb* over their young prospects by trading for bottom-feeding vets that they don't even need:

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas ... lius-honka

This article is nonsense. Every team sprinkles vets into their lineup. That's not a big deal. It's also not a problem. If a young player is good, he's going to play and will play over these vets. If a young guy struggles, the vet will take his ice time.

Let's look at last night's lineup:

3rd year traded for prospect - traded for vet - UFA signed vet
drafted vet - rookie draftee- undrafted rookie free agent
traded for vet - 4th year draftee - UFA signed vet
3rd/4th year draftee - 2nd year draftee - 5th year draftee

3rd year draftee - 5th year draftee
rookie draftee - UFA signed vet
traded for draftee - traded for vet

forward scratch: traded for vet
d scratches: traded for vet and 2nd season draftee

Of the 18 skaters in the lineup last night, 10 were drafted by the Stars. Two were acquired while prospects and broke into the league as rookies with the Stars. That's 12 of 18 guys being "home grown" talent. The top three defenders in ice time are all Stars draft picks who never once had to whine about a veteran blocking their playing time.

Their lineup is full of lots of home grown talent, but if there is a problem, it's that the forward group isn't exactly full of a lot of high end home grown talent. The list is pretty much Benn and Hintz. That's it. The rest of the home grown forwards just aren't very good, which is why those Stars draftees primarily make up the bottom six of the forward group. Dickinson and Faksa are checking line guys, but they aren't ever going to be point producers. Nichushkin and Ritchie are severely limited due to one missing hands and the other deciding to line his skates with lead.

-----

Edit: Thought this was written by DeFranks, but now see it was not. That makes sense. I like DeFranks and don't think he'd ever go to this length to make a lengthy write up all to try to explain away how Honka sucking is actually not sucking if you ignore things like goals and assists and focus on make believe potential goals. In playing the exact same roles in terms of minutes, playing partners, etc., Honka's points per 60 minutes played is 0.60, which is really bad, while Fedun's is over one and is right in line with what Heiskanen is producing. Yes, Fedun is a better offensive generator than Honka, and that should say a lot about why Honka sits.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Wed Mar 20, 2019 10:56 am

I think you missed the point of the article. We've got young guys who have excellent metrics, who for one reason or another are being benched for expensive (in dollars and picks) vets who don't even bring a fraction of that skill to the table.

Look at those charts in the article and explain how, in any sane universe, Fedun gets scratched for Lovejoy. Explain to me why we would, ever, need to give up a 3rd rounder (a.k.a. "a Brassard") for an unmovable pile of guh like Lovejoy.

It's like the entire sports world has spent the last decade fine-tuning their advanced metrics, and the early adopters (Red Sox, Cubs, Blackhawks, Kings, Bruins, Lightning) win championships. Meanwhile, the Stars have retreated into the Good Old Boys Club of "this guy may not be fast or skilled, but he brings Leadership and Blocks Shots" that is quickly getting pushed out of the four major sports leagues.

It's no mystery why our offense is a joke.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:09 am

But who are you talking about? What scoring is being benched or scratched? Let's put together a list of names. Who is being held back?

The offense isn't a joke because of these personnel decisions. Swapping out Lovejoy for Honka as the 12 minute a night #6 guy would add essentially zero offense to this team. We know this because when Honka has played the past two seasons, he provided zero offense.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby BigAl » Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:20 am

Lovejoy is a right shot playoff rental in case Fedun, Polak, or Klingberg get injured. That’s it.
A 3rd round pick is a pretty common price for pending UFAs.

He played last night probably because Fedun left town for a death in the family.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby slaps » Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:40 pm

All teams use a mix of homegrown talent and free agents. The only reason homegrown talent is pushed now is because of the caps on entry level deals - cheap production in a salary cap world. But that assumes you are drafting guys who are able to consistently contribute on a regular basis during that deal.

The Stars have two consistent issues with homegrown talent. The first is that, for whatever reason in the first round or two (i.e., the rounds in which you should be picking up top-6 talent), they seriously value "character" over "hockey sense." They look for a guy who is least likely to be a "bust" rather than the guy that may provide the most skill and upside. That's a consistent, recurring theme with the Stars. It's fine to some degree, because a solid team needs the Dickinsons and the Faksa as steady, reliable, bottom-6 guys. But the Stars have virtually no homegrown top-6 talent, so they have to trade for it or get it on the UFA market. Trading for it is really expensive, and UFA talent is either way too much against the cap for what you get, or the best years are well in the past.

The second issue is an inability to properly evaluate existing talent and to objectively appraise the team. This is also a recurring thing. Why trade for Lovejoy when you have Bayreuther available? Why trade for Oleksiak at all, especially with the term left on the deal? Why sign Hanzal when you have Dickinson and Faksa? Why sign Nichuskin and call it good when Pacioretty, Lindholm, etc., were all available this summer?

Part of the inability to properly evaluate talent is hanging on to prospects until they have zero value, even if they organization knows they won't be using them. There was a recent article about the Lightning, and while they've got plenty of homegrown talent, a number of pieces they traded for by trading a prospect when there was still value or perceived value for that prospect.

The only part about the article that I really agreed with was the line "[t]he Stars have given up the middle of their 2020 draft for parts they didn't really ever need." I'm not hung up so much on the use of the 2nd or 3rd as trading chips, but more the pieces they were used for. What if that 2nd and 3rd could have gotten us (or pushed us over the edge for) a Pacioretty or Lindholm or Duchene, or someone like that? I think that's likely.

I don't blame the organization for taking a swing with Honka. I do blame them for not properly evaluating his place in the organization, realizing he doesn't fit, and then moving him for someone that does while that was still an option.

Also, that article was really poorly written.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Mar 20, 2019 5:47 pm

I've decided the worst part about being a pro hockey player is having to lace up skates for an off-ice photo shoot. Otherwise, great job if you can get it.

I got a ranch in downtown Dallas/I buy diamonds by the ton/Chase cuties in my Cadillac/Drill oil wells just for fun/But when it comes to boots, I need a deal/That will fit me right, toe to heel/So I get my boots at Western Warehouse.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby nigel » Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:08 pm

Oof. Yet another reminder that only FSSW can deliver that FSSW-caliber promo.

We are Fox Sports. We are...shitty at taking pics.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby mookie1010 » Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:17 pm

Yeah, they need some shadow scene control in those pics.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby SaintAngerBH » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:32 am

The chances of making the playoffs are now 94-96 percent after the Florida win.

Dallas Stars: "Challenge accepted!"
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Knives Out » Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:10 am

mookie1010 wrote:shadow scene control

Good band name.
That Hanzal's so hurt right now.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ScubaSteve » Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:15 am

SaintAngerBH wrote:The chances of making the playoffs are now 94-96 percent after the Florida win.

Dallas Stars: "Challenge accepted!"


Magic number to clinch is 11 points in the final 9 games. So if you go just barely over .500 you’re in even if Minnesota wins out. More than likely, 3-6 or 4-5 gets you in.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby SaintAngerBH » Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:52 am

Oh, I'm sure the Stars can still pull off missing by a point. haha
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby B Kat » Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:59 am

I would prefer not to look too far ahead, it's dangerous.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:09 am

Interesting article from the Athletic (so... paywall). This guy broke down 16 years of drafting from all teams and, just going off of points, ranked each team in each year.

Dallas overall comes across as slightly below average when you go back to 2003, but that's because of banner draft years in 2005 (Neal, Niskanen, Wandell) and 2007 (Benn).
But starting in 2014-2018... holee shite:

https://theathletic.com/875265/2019/03/ ... and-worst/

For those without a subscription, here is the breakdown overall:

Spoiler:
Image


Note that last column. 42 points (as of March 4th, so Hintz' recent streak not included). More than ten times what the Caps have got in that time frame (??), but still.... guh.

Here's the year-by-year to really let it sink in:

Spoiler:
Image

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby BigAl » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:46 am

A common complaint around here is that the Stars shouldn’t waste 1st round picks on gritty two-way players.
But this is what happens when you take a chance on skill guys that turn into busts (Honka, Gurianov).
Almost half of all NHL regulars come from the 1st round, so missing on those picks is a big setback.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby The Frugal Gourmet » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:47 am

I'm not sure Gurianov is a bust yet.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby BigAl » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:56 am

He’s in his 3rd AHL season, which is cause for alarm.
Got leapfrogged by L’Esperance. Also cause for alarm.

We should just go ahead and start calling him Glennianov.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:08 am

BigAl wrote:A common complaint around here is that the Stars shouldn’t waste 1st round picks on gritty two-way players.
But this is what happens when you take a chance on skill guys that turn into busts (Honka, Gurianov).
Almost half of all NHL regulars come from the 1st round, so missing on those picks is a big setback.

Having a first round pick become a guy like Faksa should be no big deal. Every team need checking line players.

Even having a first round pick be a bust is just part of the risk of picking teenagers.

But when Faksa was the only every-game player drafted in the first round over a 7 year period is *fargin'* insane. And keep in mind the seven year period is bookended by Niskanen and Dickinson. Between those picks, you have a long list of busts, dudes still frequently scratched, and Faksa.

It’s amazing. It’s almost impossible. Then throw in follow up busts like Honka and Tufte.... man.
I got a ranch in downtown Dallas/I buy diamonds by the ton/Chase cuties in my Cadillac/Drill oil wells just for fun/But when it comes to boots, I need a deal/That will fit me right, toe to heel/So I get my boots at Western Warehouse.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:17 pm

Faksa isn't just some checking-line rando. He's Selke quality (came in 7th last season, way ahead of such regulars as Ryan O'Reilly and Toews). So we'll give the Stars a pass on not drafting an offensive powerhouse there.

Gurianov is pretty much topping out in the AHL this season. There's nothing really for the AHL to offer him at this point, and he should be a NHL regular next season, barring Nill's replacement signing any more Comeaus to muck up the depth charts.
Note that Gurianov also wasted two years playing for a defense-only last-place team in the KHL where he got less than ten minutes a night... while the high performers in his draft class were already getting huge minutes learning the pro game in juniors. The wrong coach/system can set a prospect back years.

Tufte isn't a bust yet, because he's still in college, but it's hard to know what we've got with him. He seems to have an excellent affect on his team --he was the top scorer on the NCAA champs last year-- but his numbers don't jump off the page like they would if he, say, played in the QMJHL. His team is still very much in it for their third straight trip to the Finals, but we won't know what he has until he gets to the AHL and either starts lighting it up like Hintz/Gury or regressing into a third-liner like Glennie. He's also a late first rounder, so it's not like he was a world-beater to begin with.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:32 pm

Comeau isn’t getting in Gurianov’s way. Him failing to score A goal with his stick in 21 games over two or three call ups is why he’s in the AHL. That and the fact he struggled to show he could handle the physical side of the game. He let himself be pushed around too easily at times. That’s why the coaches talk about a need for him to find consistency.

Tufte is a bust. He’s 8th on his college team in scoring. Scouting reports over the course of the season have read like obituaries.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:49 pm

Comeau is literally getting in everyone's way. He's a bottom-6 checking winger who has inexplicably been promoted to the top-6 despite not being able to score (and, just judging from the Eyeball Test, a weird unwillingness to even try to score, especially on breakaways). He's been given far, far more chances and minutes and linemates than any of our prospects not named Hintz, and even Hintz only got his shot on the top-6 when Comeau went down and Monty's hand was forced (Hintz' minutes went from 11-12ish to 16-18ish overnight).

Comeau is the dictionary definition of "vet who cockblocks young prospects", because Monty loves to promote Grit and Determination into spots that should be reserved for Actual Skill and Ability.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby wonko80 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:01 pm

ToddM wrote: dictionary definition of "vet who cockblocks young prospects"

What a long and specific dictionary entry.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:51 pm

ToddM wrote:Comeau is literally getting in everyone's way. He's a bottom-6 checking winger who has inexplicably been promoted to the top-6 despite not being able to score (and, just judging from the Eyeball Test, a weird unwillingness to even try to score, especially on breakaways). He's been given far, far more chances and minutes and linemates than any of our prospects not named Hintz, and even Hintz only got his shot on the top-6 when Comeau went down and Monty's hand was forced (Hintz' minutes went from 11-12ish to 16-18ish overnight).

Comeau is the dictionary definition of "vet who cockblocks young prospects", because Monty loves to promote Grit and Determination into spots that should be reserved for Actual Skill and Ability.

There are 12 forward roster spots. To say one guy is blocking all young guys is wild overreaction, especially when this one vet doesn't play a minute of PP time. Why don't you blame Nichushkin for blocking Gurianov? Nichushkin is doing less with his ice time than Comeau. Comeau is putting up 0.90 point/60 to Nichushkin's dreadful 0.76. Ritchie is also a dreadful 0.76. If you want to talk about roadblocks, point to the lowest hanging fruit first.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Knives Out » Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:28 pm

Heh. Glennianov.
That Hanzal's so hurt right now.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby #JTONTFJTGM » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:30 pm

ScubaSteve wrote:Has any team in the history of the league ever won the Jennings trophy and missed the playoffs in the same year?

If the Stars can pull it off they'll be the first to do it in the 37th season of the trophy's existence.

The worst team to win it was probably last season's Kings, who allowed only seven goals in the first round of the playoffs against the Golden Knights but got swept because they scored only three goals and were shut out twice.

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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby BigAl » Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:58 pm

Gurianov may not be a bust yet. However, he’s currently getting out scored by 46 members of his draft class this year.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportT ... sort=goals
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:41 pm

With the team finding now offense from the lower lines, Nill is getting desperate. They've called up Justin Dowling, and he's playing tonight.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:17 pm

Fun fact time: Since joining the Stars, Lovejoy has two points. Over that same period...
Spezza has three points.
Dickinson has three points.
Janmark two.
Polak two.
Nichushkin one.
L’Esperance one.
Lindell one.
Cogliano zero.
Ritchie zero.
Oleksiak zero.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby ScubaSteve » Sat Mar 23, 2019 4:44 pm

It’s amazing how within three years we’ve gone from wasting the most talented offensive team in franchise history because of historically bad goaltending to wasting the best goaltending tandem in franchise history due to historically bad scoring.
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Re: 2018-2019 Stars Regular Season Thread

Postby cdanew » Sun Mar 24, 2019 11:32 am

ScubaSteve wrote:It’s amazing how writhing three years we’ve gone from wasting the most talented offensive team in franchise history because of historically bad goaltending to wasting the best goaltending tandem in franchise history due to historically bad scoring.


Unbelievable would be more like it.

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