11/14 @ Panthers

Jason
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Re: 11/14 @ Panthers

Postby Jason » Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:24 pm

ToddM wrote:
wonko80 wrote:Man, this team sure seems an awful lot like last year's team.


Kindof. We're actually getting league-average goaltending and our defense is improved, but our offense has taken a huge hit because of it. So it balances out.

Basically exactly what we should've expected when Hitch was hired.


No, the Stars sucked scoring wise at even strength last year, they finished the year at 2.23 goals scored at even strength. The special teams are way better, but the team is worse where the majority of the game is played 5 on 5.

Let's say last year before the team mailed in it. Start of last season through until Feb 1st.
The team's 5 on 5 Numbers through February 1st.
93.02% Save Percentage (5th best in NHL)
2.24 Goals Scored (Mediocre)
2.04 Goals Against (top 10 in NHL). 2.27 was league average

2017-2018 Stars
5 on 5 Numbers
91.19% Save Percentage (24th in NHL)
2.1 Goals For - 0.14 Lower from last season (27th in NHL)
2.46 Goals Against +0.42 Higher from last season (Stars are 17th in NHL tied with Washington)

Stars take 30.86 shots per game (20th in NHL)
Stars allow 27.9 shots per game (Best in NHL)

As of today Pittsburgh is ranked 31st (last) in both Goals For (1.9) and 3.31 (Goals Against) at 5 on 5.

So far they're getting much worse goaltending 5 on 5 this season from last season.
The team's PK save percentage has improved a lot it's now 11th today, as the PK has struggled the past few games. Last season it was worst in the league.
The team is 10th in save percentage while on the PP, last season they were 29th or 30th. So that has improved a lot.
The goal scoring is down slightly at even strength due to the 6.79% shooting percentage.

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ToddM
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Re: 11/14 @ Panthers

Postby ToddM » Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:57 pm

I think a lot of those numbers, especially the shooting percentage, are due for a big regression to the mean. Nobody shoots less than 7% for an entire season. A lot of that might be because we're filling our bottom-6 with young guys (Elie, Smith, Ritchie, Dickinson, etc) instead of retread spares like most teams do, and young guys are streaky.

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Re: 11/14 @ Panthers

Postby ToddM » Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:00 pm

Side note: I just checked on Bishop's stats on hockey-reference (he's just a smidge below league average), and they have this new stat called RBS... or Really Bad Starts.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/player ... obe01.html

I don't know why, I just think that *fargin'* rules.

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ScubaSteve
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Re: 11/14 @ Panthers

Postby ScubaSteve » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:21 pm

ToddM wrote:Side note: I just checked on Bishop's stats on hockey-reference (he's just a smidge below league average), and they have this new stat called RBS... or Really Bad Starts.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/player ... obe01.html

I don't know why, I just think that *fargin'* rules.


I don't think that stat is populating correctly. It says Kari Lehtonen only had 12 Really Bad Starts last season.
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BigAl
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Re: 11/14 @ Panthers

Postby BigAl » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:25 pm

Kari would dominate the Really Bad Finish category.
Thora Birch.

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Re: 11/14 @ Panthers

Postby ScubaSteve » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:30 pm

The Really Bad Finnish category, as well.
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Troy McClure
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Re: 11/14 @ Panthers

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:36 pm

ScubaSteve wrote:
ToddM wrote:Side note: I just checked on Bishop's stats on hockey-reference (he's just a smidge below league average), and they have this new stat called RBS... or Really Bad Starts.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/player ... obe01.html

I don't know why, I just think that *fargin'* rules.


I don't think that stat is populating correctly. It says Kari Lehtonen only had 12 Really Bad Starts last season.

All the stat measures is starts where your save % was below .850. The average team faces about 31 shots a game, so if you give up four goals a game every game while facing 31 shots each outing, your team's record will suck, your GAA will suck, your save % will be bottom of the league at .870, but your RBS number will be zero.
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wonko80
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Re: 11/14 @ Panthers

Postby wonko80 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:29 pm

Yeah, if it weren't for the PP, this team would be at the bottom of the standings. So unless a bunch of guys start scoring 5v5, I don't have a lot of hope they'll do anything of note this season. This is not the Stars of 2 years ago by any means where we can take the awesome offense, add in some defense and goaltending and they're awesome. Apparently they're average at best 5v5 (but really not even that good) so the better defense and goaltending have equated to an average team instead of shitty one.

I just don't seem to see a lot of consistent scoring chances 5v5, and that worries me

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wonko80
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Re: 11/14 @ Panthers

Postby wonko80 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:34 pm

Troy McClure wrote:
ScubaSteve wrote:
ToddM wrote:Side note: I just checked on Bishop's stats on hockey-reference (he's just a smidge below league average), and they have this new stat called RBS... or Really Bad Starts.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/player ... obe01.html

I don't know why, I just think that *fargin'* rules.


I don't think that stat is populating correctly. It says Kari Lehtonen only had 12 Really Bad Starts last season.

All the stat measures is starts where your save % was below .850. The average team faces about 31 shots a game, so if you give up four goals a game every game while facing 31 shots each outing, your team's record will suck, your GAA will suck, your save % will be bottom of the league at .870, but your RBS number will be zero.

I see what they are trying to do: find a way to exclude what are hoped to be outlier starts. We all know goalies have those games for sure, but to start taking them out can change the picture of who a goalie really is. Like say Niemi's stats in non-RBS games are good. That doesn't mean I'd ever want him as a goalie.

Also, every other player has Really Bad Games, but to try and track that would be pointless as you probably should factor them in. Otherwise you should probably take out the Really Awesome Starts/Games as well. Like any shutout Kari gets definitely should be taken away as an outlier.

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ToddM
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Re: 11/14 @ Panthers

Postby ToddM » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:04 pm

Troy McClure wrote:
ScubaSteve wrote:
ToddM wrote:Side note: I just checked on Bishop's stats on hockey-reference (he's just a smidge below league average), and they have this new stat called RBS... or Really Bad Starts.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/player ... obe01.html

I don't know why, I just think that *fargin'* rules.


I don't think that stat is populating correctly. It says Kari Lehtonen only had 12 Really Bad Starts last season.

All the stat measures is starts where your save % was below .850. The average team faces about 31 shots a game, so if you give up four goals a game every game while facing 31 shots each outing, your team's record will suck, your GAA will suck, your save % will be bottom of the league at .870, but your RBS number will be zero.


Yes, but your BS would increase by 1.

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ToddM
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Re: 11/14 @ Panthers

Postby ToddM » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:05 pm

wonko80 wrote:Yeah, if it weren't for the PP, this team would be at the bottom of the standings. So unless a bunch of guys start scoring 5v5, I don't have a lot of hope they'll do anything of note this season. This is not the Stars of 2 years ago by any means where we can take the awesome offense, add in some defense and goaltending and they're awesome. Apparently they're average at best 5v5 (but really not even that good) so the better defense and goaltending have equated to an average team instead of shitty one.

I just don't seem to see a lot of consistent scoring chances 5v5, and that worries me


I'm telling you guys: this just isn't the same team without Val.

At least we'll be getting him back on the first line just as Heiskanen slots alongside Klingz next season.

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ScubaSteve
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Re: 11/14 @ Panthers

Postby ScubaSteve » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:57 pm

I'm sure Gurianov and Honka will score a goal by next season too.
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