Central Division Talk

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ScubaSteve
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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby ScubaSteve » Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:34 pm

Prediction: the Connauton/Nemeth pairing will torch us for 10 goals this year.
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Knives Out
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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby Knives Out » Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:16 am

Fun fact: My first ever Facebook profile back in 2007 was a fake Carl Söderberg account which included some of his real friends LOL.
That Hanzal's so hurt right now.

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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby Jason » Fri Jun 28, 2019 2:17 pm


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ToddM
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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby ToddM » Fri Jun 28, 2019 2:31 pm

It's mind-bottling how Burakovsky is worth a 2nd and a 3rd, but PK *fargin'* Subban is worth two 2nds.

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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby Troy McClure » Fri Jun 28, 2019 2:55 pm

ToddM wrote:It's mind-bottling how Burakovsky is worth a 2nd and a 3rd, but PK *fargin'* Subban is worth two 2nds.

New Jersey's price to pay went down quite a bit when they agreed to take on the entire contract.

I'm more surprised Burakovsky went for so much considering he's going to get paid $3 million a year as a reclamation project.
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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby slaps » Fri Jun 28, 2019 4:00 pm

Todd mispronounced "$9MM Cap Hit" as "PK Subban." That's weird.
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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby ToddM » Fri Jun 28, 2019 4:25 pm

PK had a bad year (by his standards), but is still just 12 months removed from a top-3 Norris finish. That + jersey sales = worth $9 million. I doubt they'd get anywhere remotely close to that level of value from Duchene, or whoever they use that $9 mil on.

Not that I'm complaining because *f-bomb* Nashville.

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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby slaps » Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:14 pm

Yeah, but you're looking at it strictly from his value as a player. Cap space is the new most valuable commodity.
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B Kat
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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby B Kat » Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:22 pm

Yeah that cap space is speedy and good with the puck too.

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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby 5minmajor » Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:34 pm

Cap space never scored or defended a goal.
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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby slaps » Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:57 pm

5minmajor wrote:Cap space never scored or defended a goal.

Neither did Nichushkin. I'd rather have the cap space.

That argument only goes so far. It's fine to talk *poo poo* about not using cap space, but there has to be a balance somewhere.
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ScubaSteve
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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby ScubaSteve » Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:52 pm

5minmajor wrote:Cap space never scored or defended a goal.

Cap Space has a better GAA than Kari.
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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby The Frugal Gourmet » Sun Jun 30, 2019 11:07 pm

I feel like the Minnesota Wild never saw a contract for a big name they didn’t like.

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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby ToddM » Mon Jul 01, 2019 8:29 am

The Frugal Gourmet wrote:I feel like the Minnesota Wild never saw a contract for a big name they didn’t like.

It's not fair. The Wild have hogged every single Cup since they won the Suter/Parise free agent sweepstakes that one year.

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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby Jason » Mon Jul 01, 2019 5:29 pm


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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby SaintAngerBH » Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:13 pm

Jason wrote:

This would have made sense 9 years ago. But, I honestly think the Hawks are worse than the Islanders at this point.
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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby ScubaSteve » Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:46 pm

Seems like NYI was playing hardball, at least in terms of years. You’re going to only offer two years to the goalie that just won you the Jennings?
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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby #JTONTFJTGM » Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:49 pm

ScubaSteve wrote:Seems like NYI was playing hardball, at least in terms of years. You’re going to only offer two years to the goalie that just won you the Jennings?

Lehner started only four more games than Thomas Greiss did with a 2.13 goals against average, .930 save % and six shutouts to 2.28, .927 and five shutouts for Greiss.

Meaning Uncle Lou probably believes that Barry Trotz won them the Jennings.

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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby Jason » Fri Jul 05, 2019 4:10 pm



Yes offer sheet Laine.




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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby slaps » Fri Jul 05, 2019 8:10 pm

https://theathletic.com/1063512/2019/07/05/down-goes-brown-the-top-secret-transcript-of-gary-bettmans-fourth-of-july-party/

Daly: Hey look, Kevin Cheveldayoff just showed up.

Bettman: How’s it going Kevin? Having a good time?

Cheveldayoff: I guess so. Just a little weird to be having a Fourth of June party, isn’t it?

Bettman: Uh… you mean Fourth of July.

Cheveldayoff: Ha… it can’t be July. That would mean that free agency had already been going on for the better part of a week.

Bettman: It… has.

(Awkward silence.)

Cheveldayoff: Uh, I’d better go.
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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby ToddM » Fri Jul 05, 2019 9:27 pm

In an actual meritocracy, any GM who DIDN'T offersheet either Marner or Laine would be fired.

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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby ScubaSteve » Fri Jul 05, 2019 9:28 pm

We actually can offer sheet someone now that we didn’t sign Zuc, right?
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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby Troy McClure » Fri Jul 05, 2019 10:16 pm

ScubaSteve wrote:We actually can offer sheet someone now that we didn’t sign Zuc, right?

Funny enough, we can’t make an offer like the Habs did but can make a bigger offer that only ties up first round picks.
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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby ToddM » Fri Jul 05, 2019 11:27 pm

I know this is an unpopular opinion that no one else in the world has, but I truly believe that Marner/Laine are more valuable than four straight picks in the 13-18 range.

There, I said it. Phew! That's a load off my chest.

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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby slaps » Sat Jul 06, 2019 10:56 am

The most hilarious outcome would be a successful offer sheet and then the team tanking for two straight years, and those are top-3 picks.
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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby The Frugal Gourmet » Sat Jul 06, 2019 1:38 pm

ToddM wrote:I know this is an unpopular opinion that no one else in the world has, but I truly believe that Marner/Laine are more valuable than four straight picks in the 13-18 range.

There, I said it. Phew! That's a load off my chest.

So I researched this, and here’s the math:

Avg ppg of a 15th overall pick: .37 ppg

So there’s very little way any single player is worth 4 1st rounders in that range in terms of overall production. You will come out ahead most likely drafting those 4 first rounders.

3 first rounders? The player would need to average between 1.1 and 1.2 ppg. So really just be amazing.

However, the ppg goes up to almost .5 when it’s as high as 8th through 10th round. If you can pick in there, it’s not really ever gonna be worth it.

But if you drop to the 20th range to pick it falls enormously into about .2 ppg.

Of course there’s another argument to be made about the value of having a “star” that could go in interesting directions.

That’s an average though an factors in that one of those players could be top tier or two could be second tier.

Generally speaking:

A top tier team would usually benefit from making offer sheets

A bottom tier team would not and needs to build through drafting

A middle tier team would usually not but jt’s close

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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby Troy McClure » Sat Jul 06, 2019 1:56 pm

Timing also matters. If you think you are in the midst of a chance to win, the one very good player may be worth more to a franchise today versus four guys averaging .37 ppg when they get into their primes in 2024 through 2028.
I got a ranch in downtown Dallas/I buy diamonds by the ton/Chase cuties in my Cadillac/Drill oil wells just for fun/But when it comes to boots, I need a deal/That will fit me right, toe to heel/So I get my boots at Western Warehouse.

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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby ToddM » Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:11 pm

You're also forgetting that, yeah, Marner by himself isn't going to outscore four guys averaging .37 ppg, but he doesn't have to by himself. He'll put up 1 or 1.1 or whatever, and the team only needs to find three other guys better than .15 to come out ahead.

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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby Troy McClure » Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:57 pm

And by the time Marner’s eight season contract is ending, the guy picked with the fourth first round pick might be entering his second NHL season.
I got a ranch in downtown Dallas/I buy diamonds by the ton/Chase cuties in my Cadillac/Drill oil wells just for fun/But when it comes to boots, I need a deal/That will fit me right, toe to heel/So I get my boots at Western Warehouse.

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Re: Central Division Talk

Postby The Frugal Gourmet » Sat Jul 06, 2019 10:21 pm

ToddM wrote:You're also forgetting that, yeah, Marner by himself isn't going to outscore four guys averaging .37 ppg, but he doesn't have to by himself. He'll put up 1 or 1.1 or whatever, and the team only needs to find three other guys better than .15 to come out ahead.

It won’t necessarily be distributed that way though. That’s an average. Could be 3 guys will bust and one guy will be amazing. Or two guys will bust and 2 will be very solid.

In fact it’s VERY unlikely that more than 2 players will be productive.

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