Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spare

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby slaps » Fri Jul 05, 2013 11:53 pm

http://www.stanleycupofchowder.com/2013 ... ksson-deal

Interesting analysis of the deal from a Boston writer. Basically, he concludes that it's an OK deal for the Bruins, but not great. He compares it to giving up too early on Kessel, and questions the wisdom in trading a young player on the rise for an older player on the (statistically speaking) downward slope of his career. Plus that Seguin's ceiling is so much higher than Eriksson's.

We won, according to him.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby Troy McClure » Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:02 am

FYI, if someone is going to deviate from generic stats, these numbers per 60 minutes mean a lot more to me than the CORSI garbage.

I notice he's a blogger and not a regular hockey writer. I don't say that to demean the guy. I can't hate a guy going by Tom Servo's good name. I mention it because he's the first hockey writer I've seen talk about this trade who mentioned Loui's crappy season. Everyone else ignored it and refers to Loui as a sure fire 70 point producer. I think he'll probably finish closer to 70 again, but to ignore this season is lazy work by most in the hockey world.
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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby The Frugal Gourmet » Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:17 am

slaps wrote:http://www.stanleycupofchowder.com/2013/7/5/4495848/the-numbers-game-evaluating-the-seguin-eriksson-deal

Interesting analysis of the deal from a Boston writer. Basically, he concludes that it's an OK deal for the Bruins, but not great. He compares it to giving up too early on Kessel, and questions the wisdom in trading a young player on the rise for an older player on the (statistically speaking) downward slope of his career. Plus that Seguin's ceiling is so much higher than Eriksson's.

We won, according to him.


This may be some cognitive dissonance on my part, but it's actually right in line with what I had assumed.

The irony here is that I'm now almost happy we missed out on Vinnie if it helped make this trade happen. I think we landed the best player thus far this offseason. And a fabulous rebuilding piece.

Even if Seguin isn't better than Loui (and I think he is), we retooled our roster with a 21 year old center. Worst case scenario he is only the second line center down the road.

And I question the wisdom of what Boston just did as well. They are assuming they will be right back in the same spot next season. In today's game it rarely works like that. You hold onto your great young players most of the time.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby Troy McClure » Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:25 am

Had Vinny been signed, I bet the trade still happens. Peverley probably wouldn't be part of it.
I got a ranch in downtown Dallas/I buy diamonds by the ton/Chase cuties in my Cadillac/Drill oil wells just for fun/But when it comes to boots, I need a deal/That will fit me right, toe to heel/So I get my boots at Western Warehouse.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby ToddM » Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:30 am

Troy McClure wrote:FYI, if someone is going to deviate from generic stats, these numbers per 60 minutes mean a lot more to me than the CORSI garbage.


..except when it comes to Fistric, of course.

Troy McClure wrote:I notice he's a blogger and not a regular hockey writer. I don't say that to demean the guy. I can't hate a guy going by Tom Servo's good name. I mention it because he's the first hockey writer I've seen talk about this trade who mentioned Loui's crappy season. Everyone else ignored it and refers to Loui as a sure fire 70 point producer. I think he'll probably finish closer to 70 again, but to ignore this season is lazy work by most in the hockey world.


Stanleycupofchowder is Boston's DBD: highly informative, if a little dry, and relying heavily on sabremetrics. Here we all pretty much relied on our eyeballs to tell us that Eriksson wasn't playing well; I thought it was interesting that the advanced stats told pretty much the same story.

If this last season was an anomaly, then Lucic-Krejci-Eriksson could be one of the top lines in the entire conference, altho I suspect they'll put him with Marchand-Bergeron to bump Ignila up to the first line. Either way, for the next 2-3 seasons that team could do some serious damage. IF Loui can regain his form.

If I were a Bruins fan, I would be pretty pissed about the trade. Sure, Seguin was too expensive as a roving winger/3rd line center. But not getting any of our "real" prospects? That's gotta hurt.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby Jason » Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:37 am

Troy McClure wrote:Had Vinny been signed, I bet the trade still happens. Peverley probably wouldn't be part of it.


Horcoff wouldn't have been acquired. Peverley likely still would be included, since he can play right wing and just take faceoffs on his strong side.

Seguin, Vinny, Eakin/Peverley-Fiddler

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby Troy McClure » Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:39 am

Like any stat, it's possible to not tell the whole story with it. For example, if that stat told the whole story, Edmonton wouldn't have passed on Fistric after only one season.
I got a ranch in downtown Dallas/I buy diamonds by the ton/Chase cuties in my Cadillac/Drill oil wells just for fun/But when it comes to boots, I need a deal/That will fit me right, toe to heel/So I get my boots at Western Warehouse.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby slaps » Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:16 am

Putting aside fancystats and anything else, I'm exceptionally excited about this trade. This was a fantastic move for a potential superstar. I'm fully on board with Nill after that flurry of trades. This wasn't just a breath of fresh air like signing some nice free agents, this was a complete shift of the roster, adding elite skill and puck possession. This is a franchise-changing move, similar to the Sharks acquiring Thornton or the Ducks adding Pronger.

Stars won the summer by getting Seguin. He's exactly what we needed. I can't wait for October and to see them play.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby slaps » Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:22 am

Troy McClure wrote:FYI, if someone is going to deviate from generic stats, these numbers per 60 minutes mean a lot more to me than the CORSI garbage.

I notice he's a blogger and not a regular hockey writer. I don't say that to demean the guy. I can't hate a guy going by Tom Servo's good name. I mention it because he's the first hockey writer I've seen talk about this trade who mentioned Loui's crappy season. Everyone else ignored it and refers to Loui as a sure fire 70 point producer. I think he'll probably finish closer to 70 again, but to ignore this season is lazy work by most in the hockey world.


He's also one of the few that has taken pains to point out that the best Loui has ever done was 5 years ago, and Seguin has already almost passed that.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby ToddM » Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:37 am

Troy McClure wrote:Like any stat, it's possible to not tell the whole story with it. For example, if that stat told the whole story, Edmonton wouldn't have passed on Fistric after only one season.


It's not just one stat, tho. In terms of goals allowed/60, he put up 1.46 at even strength, almost a full goal less than Dillon's 2.39. Even more importantly, when Fistric was not on the ice Edmonton gave up 3.27/60:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statisti ... +26+27+28#

That's basically like a pitcher with an ERA a full two runs lower than the rest of his team. It was even more pronounced on th e PK, where he led his entire team in GA/60 by a country mile at 3.49 while playing 2 minutes of PK a night. That's leagues lower than the nearest Star who saw regular PK time, Robidas, who posted a 5.60. Aaron Rome, by the way, who essentially replaced Fistric, allowed a team-high 11.53 GA/60 on the PK, and a 2.80 at even strength, twice the rate of allowing goals as Fistric in similar roles and similar minutes.

Of course, Fistric was usually matched up against the other guys' second lines, so he never had to face the Sedins and whatnot (except on the PK, of course, where they never scored on him). But it's not like Fisty was out there blowing up the Reilly Smiths and Matt Frasers of the Northwest division. And he performed in his secondary role quite admirably, unlike his piss-poor replacement in Dallas.

So why does Fistric keep getting moved? I think it's his offense, actually. He had zero goals and six assists last season --one fewer point than Dillon in 540 fewer minutes. It's either that, or he's a locker room cancer or something, which seems a little farfetched but what else can you go on? What's 100% rock-solid certain is that whatever team signs him is getting one of the top third-pairing shutdown defensemen and PK specialists in the entire NHL. We'll see who's smart enough to sign him.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby B Kat » Sat Jul 06, 2013 9:28 am

The Seguin/Eriksson trade will probably end up being good for both teams. I do think that Seguin is already very good, playing out of position with less minutes in Boston, and has HUGE potential with the Stars. Loui will bounce back and play well for Boston. Really it was the cap crunch Boston found itself in that allowed this trade happen. So finally for once, cap space helped the Stars!

On the other hand, Peverley is really going to help the Stars right now too and getting him in the deal was a big boon. I also think R Smith could turn out to be a pretty good player for Boston. He didn't quite put it together in the NHL with Dallas, but he has talent.

Am super excited for next season.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby CycloneGU » Sat Jul 06, 2013 12:48 pm

Got a message on Twitter saying it looks like the Stars are beefing up.

She also used the words "holy *poo poo*".

Cyclone

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby slaps » Sat Jul 06, 2013 1:05 pm

CycloneGU wrote:Got a message on Twitter saying it looks like the Stars are beefing up.

She also used the words "holy *poo poo*".

Cyclone


I'm probably going to regret this, but what are you talking about?

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby slaps » Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:34 pm

Dreger did an ESPN interview and he said this trade was pretty much entirely about money for Boston, not about Seguin's immaturity.

Also said Dallas won the trade.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby CycloneGU » Sat Jul 06, 2013 9:06 pm

slaps wrote:
CycloneGU wrote:Got a message on Twitter saying it looks like the Stars are beefing up.

She also used the words "holy *poo poo*".


I'm probably going to regret this, but what are you talking about?

A Wings fan making an observation to me stating the obvious.

In other words, someone like Scuba.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby Troy McClure » Sun Jul 07, 2013 11:42 am

@tylerseguin92: After repeated attempts by "hackers" to try to damage my reputation I have decided to shut down my twitter account for a while.
I got a ranch in downtown Dallas/I buy diamonds by the ton/Chase cuties in my Cadillac/Drill oil wells just for fun/But when it comes to boots, I need a deal/That will fit me right, toe to heel/So I get my boots at Western Warehouse.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby Knives Out » Sun Jul 07, 2013 12:44 pm

LOL his jimmies are rustled.
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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby Troy McClure » Sun Jul 07, 2013 2:01 pm

Did you see his "steers or queers" thing that one of his idiot friends tweeted using Seguin's phone?
I got a ranch in downtown Dallas/I buy diamonds by the ton/Chase cuties in my Cadillac/Drill oil wells just for fun/But when it comes to boots, I need a deal/That will fit me right, toe to heel/So I get my boots at Western Warehouse.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby 5minmajor » Sun Jul 07, 2013 2:06 pm

http://www.thefourthperiod.com/news/bos130707.html

All of this reminds me of the classic cowboy movie "The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance," in which a writer learns all about the man (played by Jimmy Stewart) who is said to have killed the notorious outlaw, Liberty Valance. At the end of the film, Stewart's character admits that he did not shoot and kill the bad guy. The writer immediately rips up his notes. Upon seeing this, Stewart's character asks, "Aren't you going to use that?" And the biographer says, "No sir, when the legend becomes fact, print the legend."
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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby B Kat » Sun Jul 07, 2013 2:15 pm

Troy McClure wrote:@tylerseguin92: After repeated attempts by "hackers" to try to damage my reputation I have decided to shut down my twitter account for a while.

Stupid excuse, good decision.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby B Kat » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:27 pm

NBCSN


Tyler Seguin‘s “hacked” Twitter account is already causing a disturbance for his new team.

The Dallas Stars were already set to have a talk with their newly acquired forward when he arrives in town on Monday, but they’ve now issued a statement regarding Seguin’s now deleted tweet that semi-cited a famous line from the movie “Full Metal Jacket.”

From the Stars:

“In no way, shape or form does the Dallas Stars organization condone or agree with the message that was sent out through Tyler Seguin’s Twitter feed last night. We’ve addressed the issue directly with Tyler and we’ll continue to work on educating our players regarding the importance of their conduct on all forms of social media.”

As for Seguin, he said he’s shutting down his Twitter account for a while and with this kind of embarrassing introduction to fans in Dallas, that’s probably for the best.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby SaintAngerBH » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:16 pm

Hm. So, did Tyler actually write it or was his account hacked?
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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby atticus ross » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:21 pm

What was the Full Metal Jacket tweet?

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby SaintAngerBH » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:24 pm

atticus ross wrote:What was the Full Metal Jacket tweet?



What I found was:

@tylerseguin92

Only steers and queers in Texas, and I'm not a cow.


I'll bet someone pranked him. I don't think it's that bad. It's pretty common and often it's about the user being gay. Doesn't change my initial impressions of him at all. I still think he's going to be awesome for this team.
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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby slaps » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:25 pm

SaintAngerBH wrote:Hm. So, did Tyler actually write it or was his account hacked?


Come on. "Hacked?" This isn't an episode of NCIS. He got drunk or let his drunken friend near his phone.

But you have to think Nill and Horcoff and Ruff will put an end to that *poo poo* right quick.
Last edited by slaps on Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby ScubaSteve » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:30 pm

That's more of a complete sentence than anything Benn has ever said.
Image Cody Monette likes this.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby starsfan18 » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:31 pm

SaintAngerBH wrote:
atticus ross wrote:What was the Full Metal Jacket tweet?



What I found was:

@tylerseguin92

Only steers and queers in Texas, and I'm not a cow.


I'll bet someone pranked him. I don't think it's that bad. It's pretty common and often it's about the user being gay. Doesn't change my initial impressions of him at all. I still think he's going to be awesome for this team.


+1, who gives a *poo poo*?

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby Troy McClure » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:33 pm

It's why he put hacked in quotes. He didn't write it, but some idiot friend did. I've said things 1,000 times worse, but that stuff isn't on a twitter account under my name.
I got a ranch in downtown Dallas/I buy diamonds by the ton/Chase cuties in my Cadillac/Drill oil wells just for fun/But when it comes to boots, I need a deal/That will fit me right, toe to heel/So I get my boots at Western Warehouse.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby ScubaSteve » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:57 pm

Just a TSF account.
Image Cody Monette likes this.

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Re: Loui/Smith/Fraser/Morrow to BOS for Seguin/Peverley/spar

Postby 5minmajor » Sun Jul 07, 2013 5:09 pm

I tweet that very line the 1st weekend of October every year.
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