2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

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Math
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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby Math » Mon May 17, 2021 7:19 am

Troy McClure wrote:This description of Hintz's injury is gross.


I understand that Hintz's ability to give birth is in jeopardy.

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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby slaps » Mon May 17, 2021 12:29 pm



https://www.defendingbigd.com/2021/5/17/22435166/analysis-miro-heiskanen-wasnt-his-usual-self-and-dallas-system-fancy-stats-rick-bowness

Whatever we think of this season in a bubble, Heiskanen’s on-ice impact has been declining since both seasons under Bowness. He’s gone from a well-rounded shot-generator and shot-suppressor to a player whose edges have been dulled to break even when not on the power play.

Conversely, Heiskanen gets the bulk of his icetime with Radek Faksa, Blake Comeau, and Andrew Cogliano. Dallas also has an even spread of player ice time, with the Stars top nine forwards creating a homogenized group the staff trusts instead of the core phalanx Colorado’s staff likes to spearhead against opponents. Makar is a governing element of Colorado’s rolling attack, whereas Heiskanen is a brick in the wall of Dallas’ stonewall method. That Heiskanen plays with a group that can’t score is certainly one way to stifle his offense. But Dallas has somehow managed to undercut his offensive acumen in explicit and implicit ways.

As you can see below, Heiskanen is tasked with exiting the zone and carrying the puck. But the distinction between who carries the puck and how often isn’t as clear between Heiskanen and Oleksiak as it is with, say, John Klingberg and Esa Lindell.

Keep in mind, this is not a criticism against Oleksiak. It’s a criticism of usage, and what should be a distinct separation of strengths. Why is Oleksiak given the green light to activate as much as he does when their offensive skills are so unequal? Why is Heiskanen forced on his offside to accommodate this, no less?

What makes this so bizarre is that Dallas either agrees with this analysis of Oleksiak or doesn’t know how to be consistent with their analysis of Oleksiak because it’s Lindell they choose for the second PP unit.

Bowness’ system was part of an intense debate last March when it seemed like Bowness could be on the hot seat. It might look silly in retrospect, after taking Dallas to the Stanley Cup Finals and all, but less so now. Obviously not in terms of whether Bowness is on the hot seat, but in terms of his methods. Given the strict emphasis on passing and multi-touch movement in overtime, one wonders whether Dallas’ overtime record wasn’t simply a reflection of what happens when you’re only taught that offense comes from defense, and never the other way around.
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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby ScubaSteve » Mon May 17, 2021 12:35 pm

Heiskanen gets a mulligan this year as far as I'm concerned. With that brutal schedule and his increased ice time after getting covid, it's amazing he was upright at all. But yeah if he doesn't ramp it up this coming season, it will affect his salary on his next contract.

As far as Bones' system, it's not like any of that is breaking news.
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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby slaps » Mon May 17, 2021 12:56 pm

ScubaSteve wrote:As far as Bones' system, it's not like any of that is breaking news.

I find it interesting to see how data supports (or doesn't support) the "eye test." There are a lot of people who feel that Bowness is the best coach for the team.
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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby B Kat » Mon May 17, 2021 1:08 pm

Putting Miro out with FCC, which is tasked with defending the other teams' best players means Miro is defending against the other teams' best players. Seems like the right way to deploy him. Yes, he has offensive skills, but he also has the best defensive skills on the team, especially coupled with Oleksiak. He is on the 1st PP and he is out there with offensive lines when he can, (there is only so much ice time he can eat).

Bowness' system is less restrictive than it's made out to be. Our defense activates, it's our forwards that might have to defend more and that may curtail their production due to his "system".

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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby ScubaSteve » Mon May 17, 2021 1:15 pm

Bones also probably is just doing his best with the pieces he has. You can't play Lindyball when you only have two fast skaters on the entire roster. You have to adjust to Hitchball if that's all your roster is capable of.
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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Mon May 17, 2021 1:16 pm

The "who Miro plays with" thing is being highly overstated in the article. His fancy chart shows Heiskanen plays a little bit more with the FCC line than with others, but it's not some massive difference. Bowness plays the FCC line against the other team's top players, and because of that, Bowness also plays his best overall d-man against those top opponents.

He's also mad at the coaches for letting Oleksiak carry the puck and wants us to pretend that somehow hurts Heiskanen's stats. I don't know what to do with this. It seems silly. Every coach would prefer to have two breakout options because it keeps the opponent guessing. This should actually work to open things up more for both of them. This writer also seems to suggest coaches are encouraging Oleksiak to attack the net and not let Heiskanen do the same, which I think is complete bullshit.

I'll just go back to the PP. Bowness's defensive system doesn't apply to the PP, so all of the production excuses get thrown out. On the PP, is Heiskanen tearing it up where he is free to show off his skills? No, not really. He's fine.
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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Mon May 17, 2021 1:20 pm

He's mainly just comparing Miro (who spends more of his shifts backing up the FCC offensive black holes than any other line) and Makar (who plays almost exclusively with MacKinnon/Rantonen/Landeskog) and showing how who you play with determines your point totals.

Again, put Makar on this Bowness team and he'd be putting up Cam Fowler-esque numbers too.

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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Mon May 17, 2021 1:21 pm

I also think it's adorable that Stars fans think this team will be "fully healthy" next season. I've been watching hockey since 99 and have never once seen a full healthy team anywhere/anytime.

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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby ScubaSteve » Mon May 17, 2021 1:22 pm

JUST A REMINDER (for wonko), Miro played really well in the bubble.
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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Mon May 17, 2021 1:23 pm

ToddM wrote:He's mainly just comparing Miro (who spends more of his shifts backing up the FCC offensive black holes than any other line) and Makar (who plays almost exclusively with MacKinnon/Rantonen/Landeskog) and showing how who you play with determines your point totals.

Again, put Makar on this Bowness team and he'd be putting up Cam Fowler-esque numbers too.

John Klingberg puts up really good offensive numbers in this system. The system excuse only helps so much.
I got a ranch in downtown Dallas/I buy diamonds by the ton/Chase cuties in my Cadillac/Drill oil wells just for fun/But when it comes to boots, I need a deal/That will fit me right, toe to heel/So I get my boots at Western Warehouse.

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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby ScubaSteve » Mon May 17, 2021 1:26 pm

Troy McClure wrote:
ToddM wrote:He's mainly just comparing Miro (who spends more of his shifts backing up the FCC offensive black holes than any other line) and Makar (who plays almost exclusively with MacKinnon/Rantonen/Landeskog) and showing how who you play with determines your point totals.

Again, put Makar on this Bowness team and he'd be putting up Cam Fowler-esque numbers too.

John Klingberg puts up really good offensive numbers in this system. The system excuse only helps so much.

Miro's just deferential. If Klingberg wants to dangle and walk the blue line and try to be the hero on the PP, you can see in Miro's body language that he just kinda shrugs and says "ok, here ya go." Maybe he'll grow out of that when Klingberg is gone next year, but maybe that's just how he plays.
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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby wonko80 » Mon May 17, 2021 2:17 pm

ScubaSteve wrote:JUST A REMINDER (for wonko), Miro played really well in the bubble.

That's great that he played amazing for three weeks in a really weird circumstance where there were bunches of players who didn't even want to be there so weren't trying as hard. Would love to see that happen at any other point in his play though before handing him a huge contract.

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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby Knives Out » Mon May 17, 2021 2:34 pm

ScubaSteve wrote:I would rather lose 2-0 than win 8-7.

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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Mon May 17, 2021 3:57 pm

Troy McClure wrote:
ToddM wrote:He's mainly just comparing Miro (who spends more of his shifts backing up the FCC offensive black holes than any other line) and Makar (who plays almost exclusively with MacKinnon/Rantonen/Landeskog) and showing how who you play with determines your point totals.

Again, put Makar on this Bowness team and he'd be putting up Cam Fowler-esque numbers too.

John Klingberg puts up really good offensive numbers in this system. The system excuse only helps so much.

Klingberg plays behind our scoring line, and is almost never behind the FCC line (despite that he and Lindell used to be our 'shutdown' line in years past). So when Klingberg skates out of the d-zone with the puck, he can hit Pavelski instead of Comeau. YUUGE difference.

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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby B Kat » Mon May 17, 2021 4:41 pm

It's not like which players you're on the ice with is the sole determiner to offense. There is a complete other team out there, plus a million other little variables every shift.

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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Mon May 17, 2021 4:45 pm

ToddM wrote:
Troy McClure wrote:
ToddM wrote:He's mainly just comparing Miro (who spends more of his shifts backing up the FCC offensive black holes than any other line) and Makar (who plays almost exclusively with MacKinnon/Rantonen/Landeskog) and showing how who you play with determines your point totals.

Again, put Makar on this Bowness team and he'd be putting up Cam Fowler-esque numbers too.

John Klingberg puts up really good offensive numbers in this system. The system excuse only helps so much.

Klingberg plays behind our scoring line, and is almost never behind the FCC line (despite that he and Lindell used to be our 'shutdown' line in years past). So when Klingberg skates out of the d-zone with the puck, he can hit Pavelski instead of Comeau. YUUGE difference.

But that's not what the chart shows. The chart shows the Stars roll the d pretty evenly. Unlike the Avs comparison, the Stars don't have any bright boxes showing massive disparities in who plays with who. Yes, Heiskanen plays slightly more with the FCC line and Klingberg plays slightly more with Hintz and Pavelski, but the differences aren't extraordinary. Heiskanen was out there with offensive players a lot as well.

Again, look at the PP. Klingberg scores 6.39 points per 60 minutes on the PP. Heiskanen is 4.38. Makar is 7.16! I think what Scuba said is the bigger factor. Klingberg and Makar take chances to create offense while Miro is more likely to defer and play safe.
I got a ranch in downtown Dallas/I buy diamonds by the ton/Chase cuties in my Cadillac/Drill oil wells just for fun/But when it comes to boots, I need a deal/That will fit me right, toe to heel/So I get my boots at Western Warehouse.

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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby BigAl » Mon May 17, 2021 5:07 pm

I think the bigger issue is that he had to play on the right side all season. It’s a big difference when you have do most everything on your backhand. We need a legit right shot defenseman for the 2nd line.
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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby ScubaSteve » Mon May 17, 2021 6:00 pm

If Miro were that good he would just play with a right handed stick.
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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby SaintAngerBH » Mon May 17, 2021 7:46 pm

Knives Out wrote:https://twitter.com/DallasStars/status/1394374662423912448

I have just started the initial plans for the parade route.
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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby Knives Out » Wed May 19, 2021 5:58 pm

Oh, I forgot about Seattle's pick. We'll be drafting 15th then.
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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby 5minmajor » Wed May 19, 2021 6:58 pm

Cancel the parade then.
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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby Math » Thu May 20, 2021 7:17 am

We can still make a parade to celebrate Dallas's pick.

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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby SaintAngerBH » Thu May 20, 2021 9:24 am

Math wrote:We can still make a parade to celebrate Dallas's pick.

They will be a great defenseman for the Pittsburgh Penguins in 10 years.
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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby ToddM » Thu May 20, 2021 12:38 pm

I may be off by a bit, but I do believe that we've had the 14th or 15th pick for 18 of the last 20 years.

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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby SaintAngerBH » Thu May 20, 2021 5:50 pm

ToddM wrote:I may be off by a bit, but I do believe that we've had the 14th or 15th pick for 18 of the last 20 years.

2001 = 26 = Jason Bacashihua
2002 = 26 = Martin Vagner
2003 = No pick
2004 = 28 = Mark Fistric
2005 = 28 = Matt Niskanen
2006 = 27 = Ivan Own Goal Vishnevskiy
2007 = No pick
2008 = No pick
2009 = 8 = Scott Single Game Glennie
2010 = 11 = Jack Campbell
2011 = 14 = Jamie Oleksiak
2012 = 13 = Radek Faksa
2013 = 10 = Valeri Nichushkin
2014 = 14 = Julius Honka
2015 = 12 = Denis Gurianov
2016 = 25 = Riley Tufte
2017 = 3 = Miro Heiskanen and 26 = Jake Oettinger
2018 = 13 = Ty Dellandrea
2019 = 18 = Thomas Harley
2020 = 30 = Mavrik Bourque
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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby wonko80 » Tue May 25, 2021 8:10 am

The other day I got a call from my new ticket rep. Apparently I have a credit for some games we didn't go to last spring because of covid. She wanted to know if I'd like to purchase even a small number of games. I told her that we weren't sure about attending in person yet, but that also I just found the team boring to watch. She stammered bit after that, but really I hope she passes that message along.

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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby SaintAngerBH » Tue May 25, 2021 11:16 am

wonko80 wrote:The other day I got a call from my new ticket rep. Apparently I have a credit for some games we didn't go to last spring because of covid. She wanted to know if I'd like to purchase even a small number of games. I told her that we weren't sure about attending in person yet, but that also I just found the team boring to watch. She stammered bit after that, but really I hope she passes that message along.

She probably had no comeback because she knows it's true lol.
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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby Knives Out » Tue May 25, 2021 11:18 am

ScubaSteve wrote:I would rather lose 2-0 than win 8-7.

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Re: 2021 Stars Off-Season Thread

Postby Troy McClure » Tue May 25, 2021 11:23 am

It's one of those announcements were I saw it but don't have any opinion because I don't know what any of those people do.
I got a ranch in downtown Dallas/I buy diamonds by the ton/Chase cuties in my Cadillac/Drill oil wells just for fun/But when it comes to boots, I need a deal/That will fit me right, toe to heel/So I get my boots at Western Warehouse.

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