12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

User avatar
The Frugal Gourmet
Posts: 47288
Joined: Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:27 pm
Location: Plano, Texas

Re: 12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

Postby The Frugal Gourmet » Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:39 pm

Two caveats:

1) The percentage of NHL players who are over the age of 29 at all is actually only 20%. The percentage of NHL scorers in the top 20 last year over the age of 29 is 25%.

2) No team with an "elite" top 10 scorer advanced past the first round of the playoffs last season. No team with an "elite" top 20 scorer got deep in the playoffs at all, actually, except Boston whose "elite" scorer was over 29. It's unclear to me whether having a young stud who just racks up the points is all that valuable. It seems like players tend to be more useful when they exchange a little bit of the gaudy numbers for winning.

User avatar
slaps
Posts: 34843
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2008 11:21 am
Location: Shady Drifter
Contact:

Re: 12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

Postby slaps » Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:39 pm

Show that list to most any Dallas fan, though, and they'll tell you that Benn is basically Ovechkin and so there's nothing wrong with his contract.
Winamp - it really whips the llama's ass.

User avatar
wonko80
Posts: 16728
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:03 pm
Location: Frisco

Re: 12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

Postby wonko80 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:46 pm

The Frugal Gourmet wrote:It seems like players tend to be more useful when they exchange a little bit of the gaudy numbers for winning.

Is that what Benn, Seguin, Radulov, and Pavelski are doing?

User avatar
The Frugal Gourmet
Posts: 47288
Joined: Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:27 pm
Location: Plano, Texas

Re: 12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

Postby The Frugal Gourmet » Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:48 pm

wonko80 wrote:
The Frugal Gourmet wrote:It seems like players tend to be more useful when they exchange a little bit of the gaudy numbers for winning.

Is that what Benn, Seguin, Radulov, and Pavelski are doing?

I'd go the other way with it. Benn and Seguin were never actually among the top 10 players in the league. They just played on a shitty team with no defense and racked up points. Their numbers are down partly because they are indeed past their prime, but also because they were inflated in the first place.

User avatar
slaps
Posts: 34843
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2008 11:21 am
Location: Shady Drifter
Contact:

Re: 12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

Postby slaps » Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:12 pm

I think you're misremembering. They racked up a fuckton of points - like second in the NHL for a couple of years. When Benn signed his contract, he was very well thought-of by the entire league.
Winamp - it really whips the llama's ass.

User avatar
The Frugal Gourmet
Posts: 47288
Joined: Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:27 pm
Location: Plano, Texas

Re: 12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

Postby The Frugal Gourmet » Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:24 pm

I'm not misremembering though. I definitely remember him racking up the points. And giving up even more when they played one of the top NHL lines. I think they're very very good. But I think they were overblown as Kane or whatever caliber players.

User avatar
slaps
Posts: 34843
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2008 11:21 am
Location: Shady Drifter
Contact:

Re: 12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

Postby slaps » Wed Dec 11, 2019 1:54 pm

I think they were at that level for a couple of years, at their peak. What I think they lack is the superstar innate skill set that lets guys like Ovechkin and Kane still produce at a crazy level even as they age and slow down.
Winamp - it really whips the llama's ass.

User avatar
ToddM
Posts: 18004
Joined: Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:23 pm
Contact:

Re: 12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

Postby ToddM » Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:01 pm

The Frugal Gourmet wrote:I'm not misremembering though. I definitely remember him racking up the points. And giving up even more when they played one of the top NHL lines. I think they're very very good. But I think they were overblown as Kane or whatever caliber players.

Even Kane is overblown, by those standards: he's really only had one season where he scored significantly more points than Benn/Seguin in their primes (and normally he's right at their level, or a tick lower).

Also, Benn has 30 points in 32 playoff games, despite a rep for getting shut down by opposing defenses and disappearing for long stretches. That's not nothing.

Also: Taylor Hall approaching 30 makes me feel really *fargin'* old.

User avatar
Math
Posts: 1318
Joined: Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:19 pm

Re: 12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

Postby Math » Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:30 pm

Hmm, that graph doesn't look quite well... It's the number of points per season number (I excluded seasons with significant injuries and the 2012-2013 lock-out.

Guys like Ovie, Kane and Crosby still remain more or less steady reaching their tenth full season in the League. Seguin also shows a quite regular pattern since joining the Stars. Kopitar and Getzlaf seem to have the same kind of drop in production but that occured way later than Benn, which looks like having a Perry pattern.
Attachments
NHL_points_season.PNG
NHL_points_season.PNG (62.27 KiB) Viewed 71 times

User avatar
Troy McClure
Posts: 50696
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:37 pm
Location: not Cleveland
Contact:

Re: 12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:33 pm

The Frugal Gourmet wrote:Two caveats:

1) The percentage of NHL players who are over the age of 29 at all is actually only 20%. The percentage of NHL scorers in the top 20 last year over the age of 29 is 25%.

2) No team with an "elite" top 10 scorer advanced past the first round of the playoffs last season. No team with an "elite" top 20 scorer got deep in the playoffs at all, actually, except Boston whose "elite" scorer was over 29. It's unclear to me whether having a young stud who just racks up the points is all that valuable. It seems like players tend to be more useful when they exchange a little bit of the gaudy numbers for winning.

Those percentages are going to look that way when you're looking at the league-wide population because the CBA has driven more teams than ever to fill out their lower lines and d-pairs with guys on cheap entry level contracts. Some THN writer talked about it last season where the need for cheap players combined with the way the waiver rules work to make it harder to stash guys in their 20s in the AHL has lead to teams having the bottoms of their rosters filled with more young guys than under prior CBAs. For a Stars example, Honka was young and on the roster only because Nill would have had to put him on waivers to send him down to the AHL when prior CBAs would have delayed when that waive requirement would have kicked in.

What I was going for by looking at the list was how much younger the average high end scorer is than the 90s when it felt like the same list skewed quite a bit older. For the sake of comparison, I went back twenty years to 1999.

Top 20 today Mean Age: 25.55 Median Age: 25
Top 20 1999 Mean Age: 27.7 Median Age: 28

I agree you don't need a top end point producer to advance in the playoffs, but when the question is whether it makes sense to hand $80 million to a guy who will be over 30 for most of his contract, I think then you need to look at what you'll get.
I got a ranch in downtown Dallas/I buy diamonds by the ton/Chase cuties in my Cadillac/Drill oil wells just for fun/But when it comes to boots, I need a deal/That will fit me right, toe to heel/So I get my boots at Western Warehouse.

User avatar
Troy McClure
Posts: 50696
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:37 pm
Location: not Cleveland
Contact:

Re: 12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:35 pm

Math wrote:Hmm, that graph doesn't look quite well... It's the number of points per season number (I excluded seasons with significant injuries and the 2012-2013 lock-out.

Guys like Ovie, Kane and Crosby still remain more or less steady reaching their tenth full season in the League. Seguin also shows a quite regular pattern since joining the Stars. Kopitar and Getzlaf seem to have the same kind of drop in production but that occured way later than Benn, which looks like having a Perry pattern.

I bet you could smooth out injuries if you went with something like points per game.
I got a ranch in downtown Dallas/I buy diamonds by the ton/Chase cuties in my Cadillac/Drill oil wells just for fun/But when it comes to boots, I need a deal/That will fit me right, toe to heel/So I get my boots at Western Warehouse.

User avatar
Math
Posts: 1318
Joined: Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:19 pm

Re: 12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

Postby Math » Wed Dec 11, 2019 2:51 pm

Troy McClure wrote:I bet you could smooth out injuries if you went with something like points per game.

Makes sense, I thought of that but I'm just an old lazy *goddess* on that one.

User avatar
wonko80
Posts: 16728
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:03 pm
Location: Frisco

Re: 12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

Postby wonko80 » Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:00 pm

Troy McClure wrote:What I was going for by looking at the list was how much younger the average high end scorer is than the 90s when it felt like the same list skewed quite a bit older. For the sake of comparison, I went back twenty years to 1999.

Top 20 today Mean Age: 25.55 Median Age: 25
Top 20 1999 Mean Age: 27.7 Median Age: 28

New theory. We're all old now so the best players seem younger today that then seemed 20 years ago when we were watching. I think your other point is the more valid one that vets are not playing on the 4th lines as much just because they'd be too expensive. That may be flawed as well though.

User avatar
B Kat
Posts: 15974
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2008 1:36 pm

Re: 12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

Postby B Kat » Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:09 pm

wonko80 wrote:
The Frugal Gourmet wrote:It seems like players tend to be more useful when they exchange a little bit of the gaudy numbers for winning.

Is that what Benn, Seguin, Radulov, and Pavelski are doing?

Only Pavelski.

User avatar
Troy McClure
Posts: 50696
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:37 pm
Location: not Cleveland
Contact:

Re: 12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

Postby Troy McClure » Wed Dec 11, 2019 3:19 pm

wonko80 wrote:New theory. We're all old now so the best players seem younger today that then seemed 20 years ago when we were watching. I think your other point is the more valid one that vets are not playing on the 4th lines as much just because they'd be too expensive. That may be flawed as well though.

To help highlight that this isn't just the "they stay the same age" effect, here are more age comparisons between 1999 and today:

For the top 20 scorers in 1999 the youngest guy was 23, and 3 of the top 20 were under 25. Of the guys ranked 21-40, 2 were under 25.
For the top 20 scorers in 2019 the youngest guy is 19, and 9 of the top 20 are under 25. Of the guys ranked 21-40, 8 are under 25.
I got a ranch in downtown Dallas/I buy diamonds by the ton/Chase cuties in my Cadillac/Drill oil wells just for fun/But when it comes to boots, I need a deal/That will fit me right, toe to heel/So I get my boots at Western Warehouse.

User avatar
slaps
Posts: 34843
Joined: Thu Jul 24, 2008 11:21 am
Location: Shady Drifter
Contact:

Re: 12/10 vs. New Jersey — Day 0 a. M.

Postby slaps » Wed Dec 11, 2019 4:37 pm

Some of that is because of the cap, though. Young guys on ELC's who can contribute get pushed much more quickly into the NHL than before because they need production without high cap hits.

Another aspect is a lot more incoming players are just ready for the NHL younger due to better training, conditioning, and overall preparation.
Winamp - it really whips the llama's ass.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 19 guests